312. Special Memorandum Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1
SUBJECT
- Prospects for Ethiopia
SUMMARY
Haile Selassie still reigns as supreme authority in Ethiopia, but his declining vigor, his absorption in external affairs, and the growing complexity of government are leading to general immobility of the Imperial system. The elite of the bureaucracy and the army are increasingly alienated from the regime, and the armed forces are hard pressed to put down insurgencies in the provinces.
Even with the inspiration of successful coups elsewhere in Africa, however, the odds are against the Ethiopians turning out their Emperor. Nor is the Emperor likely to change the system in any meaningful way. The outlook is for growing internal discontent, continued insurgency in the provinces, and demands on the US for more military aid.
The death of Haile Selassie will probably be followed by a period of confusion, with traditional and modernized elements and factions of the armed forces contending for power. In these circumstances, the Ethiopian social and political order as now constituted is likely to be shaken, and even the territorial integrity of the Empire itself may be challenged. At a minimum, the US may find it harder and certainly costlier to retain the Kagnew Station communications base in the post-Haile Selassie period.
[Here follows the body of the paper.]
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Ethiopia, Vol. 2, Memos & Miscellaneous, 7/65–1/69. Secret. Prepared in the Office of National Estimates.↩