186. Telegram From the Embassy in Vietnam to the Department of State1
1532. 1. Ky government is just over four months old. While certain strengths are apparent certain stresses within and outside the government also exist. Trouble spots have appeared although the overall situation in Viet-Nam is better today than it was in the early part of 1965. Behind the shield of American power a greater measure of security has been established but the political and administrative fabric has not yet developed the necessary strength. This report is designed to outline some of the problems which Ky now confronts as he seeks to retain unity among the leadership and develop effective government.
2. Ky is well aware of his problems. He recognizes the need for actions and persuasive leadership if he is to survive the pressures threatening a government massively engaged in fighting a bitter war that reaches into almost every corner of the land and affects every facet of Vietnamese life.
3. Government is faced with complex and potentially dangerous economic problem in form of shortages certain commodities, sharply rising living costs, and inflation. Important as these are intrinsically, they take on greater importance because they have become magnified in the public mind and provide political enemies of government a “safe” weapon for attack. Too timorous to launch a head-on campaign against military government, these elements consider themselves quite safe in associating with spontaneous complaint against inflation and food shortages.
4. Situation has also produced internal stresses within Ky Cabinet. Minister National Economy Ton was under such heavy fire that he was talking of resigning. Although Ky and Directorate colleagues considered his replacement it appears that Ton has survived for the time being. Merits of case aside, there is always powerful impulse to fire a minister when his area of responsibility presents politically difficult problem.
5. Pressures for change exist elsewhere within government. The Minister of Interior is unsure of his job. Minister of Public Works and Minister of Social Welfare have been drawing criticism because of alleged failures of their Ministries to function effectively. (Friday Ky told Ambassador he had dismissed Minister of Public Works because of his inefficiency, but this has not yet been made known publicly.)
[Page 506]6. There continues to be grumbling within the military establishment. DepPriMin Nguyen Huu Co is apparently still unhappy at being relieved from post of Chief, Joint General Staff. He has criticized Ky sharply before American and Vietnamese auditors on a number of occasions and word of his remarks has circulated widely in civilian and military circles (and must certainly have been carried back to Ky). In a recent conversation with General Westmoreland, Co wondered out loud whether anything could be done to deflate Ky’s arrogance and force his nose to the grindstone. This is probably an unfair attack on Ky but illustrates the lengths to which Co is now going in his criticism. We have also been hearing of milder criticism of Ky from other senior military quarters.
7. There is a rash of coup rumors, although none are worthy of my trying to react in any way. Before his departure for Hue, Bonze Thich Tri Quang called to warn EmbOff that at least three sudiste groups he knows of are plotting. Adherents to General “Big” Minh and Major General Duong Van Duc, September 13-14 coup leader, are allegedly involved. Story is given substance by fact that Duc was forcibly removed from Ba Xuyen Province last week by military security service and returned to Saigon (where he was set free) presumably at request of Province Chief who objected to his activities. Re “Big” Minh, town has been full of stories of his imminent return for last two weeks. As we have seen in past, Saigon rumor mills need little raw material in order to operate at full blast. We have also noted that VC are quick to pick up and broadcast stories of disunity within GVN. We can assume that they are not idle now. While coup reports so far appear to have no firm basis, their currency is a manifestation of the difficulties within the government. They have become so common that Ky has seen fit to denounce the possibility of a coup. Most recently he told press no one could organize a coup at the present time.
8. On Catholic side of ledger there has been rumor that Generals Nguyen Chanh Thi and Nguyen Huu Co were plotting to become Chief of State and Prime Minister respectively with Unified Buddhist Association concurrence and support. Central Buddhists headed by Tri Quang remain highly critical of government effectiveness and of General Thieu in particular, while old political circles continue to grumble on the sidelines. Catholic circles have been remaining quiet and not agitating against the government but they are basically uncommitted in support of the Ky government.
9. Much of foregoing would be irrelevant and unimportant if Ky government could generate momentum and successfully come to grips with more important problems confronting it. However, on basis past experience, rumors and facts of this sort can have insidious effect on minds of many Vietnamese. As the government steels into its tasks for a [Page 507] longer haul the “out-politicians” launch what have often been irresponsible attacks against government. Members of government are more fully aware of the enormity of tasks confronting them and are forced to come to grips with the hard task of maintaining unity and getting on with the work of government. Some of them, it appears, would rather think of sudden change as a solution.
10. Ky does not give any obvious outward sign of running out of steam. He remains self-assured and has declared his determination remain as Prime Minister regardless number and magnitude problems confronting him. He is being responsive to the Ambassador’s advice to calm his opponents, seek out his critics, and maintain his authority by persuasion as well as action. He appears more and more as a reflective man. He retains control of the air force and his potential rivals seem to show a healthy respect for U.S. power and some consideration for the desirability of maintaining unity in government. Although Ky has not been receiving the credit due his successes, he has had a few. More than anything, favorable trends in military solution over past few months have strengthened government’s position and dampened earlier fears for security which fostered irrational changes and inspired adventures in leadership.
11. Important to recall that Directorate unity remains key to political stability in present situation. As long as ten Generals who comprise this body remain in essential accord on this point, coups which bring about fundamental changes in GVN’s organization or direction can probably be avoided. However, pressures such as those outlined above are putting their unity to an important test.
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, POL 15 VIET S. Secret. Repeated to CINCPAC for POLAD.↩