Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961–1963, Volume XXI, Africa

198. National Intelligence Estimate⁰

NIE 60/70-2-61

Washington, August 31, 1961.

THE PROBABLE INTERRELATIONSHIPS OF THE INDEPENDENT AFRICAN STATES

The Problem

To estimate the present situation and likely trends in the interrelationships of the independent African states and the effect of outside influences on the regional politics of the area.

Conclusions

1. The newly independent African states have not yet developed consistent patterns of relationships among themselves. The problems of political survival and of the maintenance of law and order have kept African leaders from concentrating on their interrelationships. Pan-Africanism, disagreements between “radicals” and “conservative” leaders, and the external influences of the Communist Bloc, the former Metropoles and the US add conflicting and complicating factors to the situation. (Paras. 7-10, 12)

2. Pan-Africanism is a mystical concept, glorifying racial kinship and the African personality and culture. Its chief target is “neo-colonialism,” its eventual goal is African unity. No black African leader can afford to reject these concepts and all of them to some degree assert Pan-Africanist ideals. But the more radical leaders, such as Nkrumah and Toure, have found the slogans of Pan-Africanism especially useful in their efforts to extend their influence and build up their followings. (Paras. 14-17)

3. “Conservative” leaders, such as Balewa, Houphouet-Boigny and Youlou, prefer postponing the issue of political integration. In addition, they wish to gain the material benefits which the maintenance of close ties with the former Metropoles have so far assured them. (Paras. 19-20)

4. Neither the Ghana-Guinea-Mali Union nor the Conseil de l’Entente is likely to develop into a real federation. Broader groupings such as the Casablanca powers (mainly radical) and the Monrovia group (mainly conservative) have yet to show any basic cohesion. It is possible that the African states may be able to create some functional organs for economic cooperation. It is also possible that some efforts will be initiated to create broad regional machinery to enable African states to settle their own disputes. (Paras. 40-44)

5. On the whole, African regional relationships are likely to remain fluid over the next several years. During this period, we believe opportunism is likely to prove more compelling to African leaders than ideology, and that there will almost certainly be frequent shifts and recombination of coalitions as African leaders vie for power and international status. Nevertheless, we anticipate that Pan-Africanism will gain support, at least as a visionary proposition, and that the militant anticolonialism of the Pan-Africanists will induce more moderate leaders to adopt neutralist foreign policies. (Paras. 37-39, 45)

6. Western European cultural and economic influence in Africa will probably remain at a relative high level over the next several years, but Africans will increasingly look elsewhere for aid. The US is regarded as an alternate source of foreign assistance, but one which does not fully understand Africa’s problems or fully support African aspirations. The Bloc will probably have considerable success in increasing its influence with African states and in promoting neutralist foreign policies, and it will encourage the emergence of additional radical regimes. African leaders will try to play East and West against the other and to extract the maximum amount of aid and assistance from both side. (Paras. 24-30)

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0. Source: Central Intelligence Agency, DCI Files, Job 79 R 1012, Box 189. Secret.