167. Paper Prepared in the Bureau of Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs0
STATUS OF INDIAN NEGOTIATIONS FOR MIG’S
Indian interest in acquiring a supersonic aircraft capability has not abated. This capability appears to include a certain number of supersonic planes, the rights for the manufacture or assembly of jet fighters of foreign design in India, and the manufacture of the Indian-designed fighter HF-24 and a foreign engine for it in India. India has already announced plans for securing one item in this package. It has signed an agreement with the Soviet Union for the manufacture in India of a Soviet jet engine for use on the Indian-designed HF-24.
Agreement on manufacture of an engine for the HF-24 has been accompanied by continued attempts by India to reach agreement with the Soviet Union to secure additional items in India’s desired supersonic packages. It seems probable that the Indians will reach agreement with the Soviet Union on the purchase of some MIG-21 fighters before the end of the year. However, it seems less likely that there will be an agreement in the foreseeable future providing for the manufacture of MIG’s in India.
At the end of August all members of the Indian evaluation team which had gone to Moscow to inquire into the purchase and manufacture in India of MIG’s had returned to New Delhi. We understand that the leader of the team has reported favorably on the aircraft; some members, however, consider the MIG-21 to have certain serious drawbacks. Ambassador Galbraith has reported that Nehru has become increasingly cool to the expenditures necessary for a MIG deal and his disposition is to postpone it or scale it down. When asked about the MIG deal by reporters in London on September 9, Nehru said, however, that “negotiations have gone a good bit further.” He added that India looked upon the MIG deal “as a normal commercial transaction without any political implications.” He said India could get better terms from the U.S.S.R. because of the nature of the Soviet economy. Krishna Menon, whose political prestige is intimately involved in the MIG issue, has been steadily pressing for approval.
Because of the absence from India of key GOI ministers, India may not announce a decision on a MIG deal until after Nehru returns to India, if then. (Nehru will make brief visits to France, Ghana and Nigeria prior to his return to India on October 1.)
[Page 326]There are several reasons why an agreement to manufacture MIG’s in India seems less likely to eventuate than an arrangement for purchase. On the Indian side, critics of a MIG manufacturing agreement argue that MIG-21’s manufactured in India would be obsolete by the time they became operational, estimated at two to three years from the time an agreement is concluded.
On the Soviet side, there have been indications that the Soviets have been experiencing doubts, for both technical and political reasons, about providing India with a manufacturing capability for the MIG-21. The Soviets apparently have had some question about Indian ability to handle so complicated a program as manufacturing supersonic fighters. This seems to us to be reasonable caution on the part of the Soviets. Additionally, we have received reports that the Soviet Union has been meeting strong Communist Chinese objections, particularly to the proposal for manufacturing MIG’s in India.
The Indians have repeatedly said that the right to manufacture is an essential element in their determination to acquire a supersonic capability. Soviet reservations regarding manufacture might therefore have an effect on the entire MIG deal.
As expressed by Ambassador Galbraith in a recent assessment, “It could be that the MIG deal is expiring not with a bang but a whimper.”
- Source: Kennedy Library, National Security Files, Countries Series, India, General, 9/14/62-9/21/62. Secret. No drafting information appears on the source text. Transmitted to the White House on September 19 under cover of a memorandum from Brubeck to Bundy noting that the paper was sent at Komer’s request.↩