331. Editorial Note

On June 14, 1963, the intelligence community issued NIE 85-63, “Situation and Prospects in Cuba,” which stated: “On balance, we estimate that there has been little or no reduction in overall military capabilities in Cuba since the end of the missile crisis. The Soviet military picture in Cuba is in transition with a scaling down of their forces becoming apparent. The total Soviet military strength in Cuba is now estimated to be about 12,000 to 13,000, but we cannot exclude the possibility that there could be several thousand more. The Soviets remain in control of the key weapons systems, while training the Cubans to operate some of them. We believe the Soviets have told the Cubans that they intend eventually to turn various weapons systems over to them. This is not to say that all Soviet military personnel will be withdrawn from Cuba; indeed, it is highly likely that the Soviets will maintain a significant presence there.” The estimate also stated that it was “unlikely that the USSR contemplates an attempt to reintroduce strategic missiles in Cuba. Continued US aerial surveillance remains a major deterrent. We cannot, however, altogether rule out such an attempt.” For text of the estimateʼs conclusions, see Foreign Relations, 1961–1963, volume XI, pages 834836.