5. Editorial Note
National Intelligence Estimate 10–58, “Anti-Communist Resistance Potential in the Sino-Soviet Bloc,” dated March 4, 1958, dealt in part with China. National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) and Special National Intelligence Estimates (SNIEs) were interdepartmental reports drafted by officers from agencies represented on the Intelligence Advisory Committee (IAC), coordinated by the Office of National Estimates of the President, the National Security Council, and other appropriate officers of cabinet level. NIE 10–58 consisted of an introductory note, a brief estimate, and 11 annexes. The annexes were prepared by the IACs Resistance Intelligence Committee and noted but not approved by the IAC.
Annex C, “Communist China,” stated that the volume and intensity of dissidence had “increased significantly” in the preceding 2 years but that there had been “no significant organized resistance or active resistance on other than a purely local level, with the important exception of Tibet, where dissidence flared into armed rebellion in 1956, forcing important shifts in the Communist time-table for this area.” After a discussion of disaffection among various groups, it stated: [Page 8]
“While it may be possible, on the basis of the preceding analyses, to make an assessment in general terms of the major sources and areas of ill will, the intensity of dissidence in Communist China and the degree to which it may be transformed into actual resistance remain largely matters of conjecture. It is logical to conclude that some degree of dissidence exists at almost every level of Communist Chinese society. However, this does not mean that such dissidence can develop into resistance unless the control capabilities of the regime were greatly weakened.”
The paper estimated that in peacetime, “organized resistance to the Peiping regime has virtually no chance of developing on a significant scale” and that in time of war, “the extent of resistance in Communist China would depend on the nature and fortunes of the war.”
The introductory note to NIE 10-58 defined dissidence as “a state of mind involving discontent or disaffection with the regime”, resistance as “dissidence translated into action”, and organized resistance as “resistance which is carried out by a group of individuals who have accepted a common purpose, agreed upon leadership, and worked out a communications system.” (Department of State, INR–NIE Files)