Office of the Historian

92. Letter From the Director of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (Cumming) to the Ambassador in Vietnam (Durbrow)1

Washington, December 19, 1958.

Dear Durby: Thank you very much for the memorandum of conversation with Ngo Dinh Nhu, which you forwarded under cover of your letter to me of November 20.2 [1 line of source text not declassified] As you say, there has been [less than 1 line of source text not declassified] reporting recently about possible GVN attempts to remove Sihanouk from power by one way or another, and your memorandum provides many clarifying details.

It is always difficult to prognosticate about Cambodian policies and especially about the mercurial Prince, but I doubt that a coup against Sihanouk could succeed at the present time. I say this because we have no reliable evidence which would indicate that civilian opposition elements in Cambodia are sufficiently numerous, strong, or united to overthrow Sihanouk; that Sihanouk’s popularity has decreased significantly in recent months; or that the armed forces and police organizations would not support him in the event of a coup.

Although Nhu made several valid points about Cambodian leaders, such as Dap Chhuon’s attitude toward current political developments in Cambodia, Nhu’s argument about a possible take-over by Monireth seems to embrace a number of illogical points. His implication that Sihanouk would stand aside passively and permit Monireth gradually to take over the bases of supreme power in Cambodia, including the armed forces and the province chiefs, seems completely unrealistic, and his attempt to draw a corollary between Diem’s rise to power in Vietnam and a possible take-over by Monireth in Cambodia clearly fails to take into account the basic differences between the two situations.

The situations in the Indochina area, of course, are quite unstable and that is why we have been particularly happy to benefit from the Embassy’s reporting. [1 line of source text not declassified] in light of the mass of unverifiable rumor and speculation, we always look in our final analyses to the observations and judgment of your staff. [Page 272] Please relay our appreciation and extend my hope that one and all have a very merry Christmas.

With best regards

Sincerely yours,

Hugh
  1. Source: Washington National Records Center, RG 84, Cambodia Embassy Files, FRC 66 A 878, 350 Cambodia 1956–58, Classified. Secret; Official/Informal.↩
  2. Document 88.↩