NI–1. Letter from the Ambassador in Nicaragua (Whelan) to the Officer in Charge of Nicaraguan Affairs (Taylor)1
Bill Hudson will be getting out a despatch the last of the week on what I am telling you.2
President Luis and General Tachito are convinced that an attempted invasion from Honduras with a probable assist from Costa Rica will occur this month or in early March. They say that the invasion will be by ex-Caribbean Legionnaires and Nicaraguan exiles who now realize that since Echandi’s election they will no longer have it easy in Costa Rica.
President Luis says that the election in Costa Rica3 handed them a jolt and that now they will not wait for Bautista’s downfall in Cuba. He also states that everyone is pretty much in agreement that success in Nicaragua would assure them a base of operations.
As of now I do not believe there will be either an invasion or a revolution. There may be an assassination or an attempted one. I rule out the revolution because there are no empty bellies—a shortage of labor exists and the landowners, most of whom are in the opposition, want to market what has turned out to be a good crop. In addition to that, the little guys don’t want to fight and the big ones are too careful.
The General thinks the Guardia are 75–80 per cent loyal to him and 95 per cent loyal to his brother Luis, the President.
[Typeset Page 837]Our Military boys think that the appraisal is fair. The hierarchy of the Catholic church is satisfied and the Bishops are cooperating with the Administration.
[Facsimile Page 2]The Liberal Party - a tight, daily functioning organization, has plenty of money and a very efficient precinct setup. The publicity that President Luis has given the supposedly revolutionary and invasion plans and his calling of the contributors (of whom he has a list) and advising them to be careful because this time there will be no fooling in the way they will be treated, is having its effect. He seems to be doing all right with Labor.
At a party of some 80 couples of the old-time Conservatives last Thursday night, at which Mrs. Whelan and I were the only outsiders, we could see the evidence of Luis’s conferences with the opposition.
Now, here are some thoughts on the negative side:
We have had friends of at least five would-be candidates for the presidency if Luis was overthrown, ask us what we thought of their boys.
We also see where some of the people who secured visas before the 1954 attempted revolution are getting visas again, but it may be routine.
In addition, there has been a stepped-up press and radio campaign.
I don’t know how I can be so far off in my appraisal as against that of the President, the General and some of the Cabinet members who have discussed it with me, but the solid members of the opposition cannot get excited about the rumors. I hope I am right. I have suggested to the President that when, as and if he has definite proof that an invasion is going to take place, he first try to prevent it by asking President Villeda Morales and President Figueres to meet with him at their respective borders and give them the information that he has.
When are you coming down?4
Sincerely yours,
- Source: Department of State, ARA/OAP Files, Lot 61 D 56, “Correspondence with Amb. Whelan Nicaragua 1958.” Confidential; Official-Informal.↩
- There is no record in Department of State files of a despatch summarizing the Ambassador’s impressions contained in his letter to Taylor on February 11.↩
- On February 2, Mario Echandi, candidate of the National Union Party, was elected President of Costa Rica.↩
- No record of Taylor’s reply was located in Department of State files.↩