316. Telegram From the Embassy in Mexico to the Department of State1
487. Embtels 476 August 28 and 486 August 29.2 Brief analysis Mexican unrest.
Increasing momentum student and labor disturbances past week climaxing in today’s incidents (many injuries and at least one possible death so far reported) has created degree of instability which we are following with grave concern. In evaluating status and outlook, balanced review neither alarmist nor complacent shows following basic elements:
- 1.
- Discontent among poorer classes is widespread, owing to constant increases in cost of living without compensatory wage raises. Failure of 40-year old revolution to provide more substantial benefits in income, education, health facilities, and housing has left large numbers in state of expectancy for way to show their resentment.
- 2.
- Disillusionment with revolution is deep as poorer classes for last generation watch politicos gaining in wealth while mouthing phrases of their struggle for the masses. Political leadership is widely viewed with bitter cynicism by those who see no tangible proof of their own improvement.
- 3.
- President Ruiz Cortines himself is especially vulnerable to attack since his campaign and inaugural promises were strongly to benefit lower classes by reducing prices for their necessities especially food. Common talk ridicules his promises in contrast to actual increases in prices of beans, potatoes, meat, corn, bread, in past six years, of which average Mexican is painfully aware.
- 4.
- Continuation of PRI in power under hand-picked candidate, while political opposition is kept in state of almost complete impotence, has created pent up dispair of registering protest through normal electoral system. There is strong feeling against the “Tapade” system of presidential succession, under which presidential candidate Lopez Mateos triumphed, and scorn for assertion of democratic and liberal principles by strictly one-party government.
- 5.
- Increasing evidence that Revolutionary Party has slowly but surely pulled away from the people and now means little to them except officeholders. Reports from country during election campaign showed synthetic enthusiasm by PRI supporters; strenuous official efforts were required to cover up for citizens’ apathy and indifference to an “electoral force” as widely described. Without effective opposition, ruling group of politicians appears to have become smug and over-confident and to suffer normal ossification of any uncontested monopoly.
- 6.
- Labor movement has now for many years been an arm of PRI and as such its leaders are stigmatized as politicians and job seekers rather than dedicated trade union members. Their control over rank and file has plainly slipped, giving exceptional opportunity for more radical leaders to seize initiative. Effective left-wing operations, under skillful Communist guidance, has succeeded in boosting prestige of new factional dissident leaders at expense old line more solid and conservative group who appear to workers as standpatters.
- 7.
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Series of successful strikes or threatened strikes since last February as reported to Department (witness telegraph, telephone, electrical workers, teachers, bus drivers, railroad and now oil workers) have followed almost identical pattern. Under dissident leadership, settlements have been made after initial government resistance to demands and refusal to deal with dissidents; latter have forced government in effect to capitulate in each case. Government’s handling of strikes has been marked by indecision, lack of plan, and final resort to out-dated and ineffectual methods characteristic of discredited capitalist employers. After years of almost undisturbed control, ruling group seems [Page 842] devoid of leaders equipped by experience and character to handle fast developing labor situation. Victory of new radical leadership such as Oton Salazar (teachers) and Dometrio Vallejo (railway workers) has whetted appetite of labor rank and file for similar moves in their benefit while government, without plan or initiative, has played part of reactionary. President, anxious to avoid trouble at almost any cost, in his ambition to leave office with unblemished record and to be recorded as great statesman in Mexican history, has permitted himself to be pushed around by new, rougher elements and he lacks aides strong enough to force him to decisions.
It is significant that throughout current disorders neither the President, any Cabinet officer, nor any other top official (except Rector of National University whose weak statement whitewashed students) have made a public speech or statement about situation. In such a climate, every sort of rumor spreads rapidly and the public is left with sorry spectacle of a drifting, leaderless and impotent government.
- 8.
- There is reason to believe current build-up of agitation is aimed at public disturbances which will irreparably smear Ruiz Cortines in public mind and humiliate him on eve his final message to Congress on state union September first. Insistence of student leaders in seeing President, disrespectful rejection his offer cancel bus fare increases and restudy situation, were preliminaries to meeting yesterday by 30 students at palace where they saw President’s secretary, banged table, used loud, profane language, and threatened action against September first functions. Dean of Diplomatic Corps informed us this morning is himself so concerned over series of incidents that he has gone to palace ask special measures protection for chiefs of mission who will be diplomatic guests at President’s address to Congress.
- 9.
- In addition spoiling record of Ruiz Cortines, leftist agitation seems have its purpose impress President-elect Lopez Mateos with strong advisability he deal with leftist leadership in formulating his government for December first takeover of power or else face consequences. Leftist domination of new regime seems likely view strength present trend.
- 10.
- Counterbalances to government weakness are not yet operative. Cardenas not linked with disturbances by any evidence available to Embassy but a prominent Mexican well known to Department assured us today he could terminate situation quickly if he so desired due his influence with leftist elements. Military appears quiescent but unconfirmed report [less than 1 line of source text not declassified] states government aware three unnamed generals, one colonel preparing take over government as military junta with assistance commanders in provinces whom they now contacting. Despite apparent calm in rest of nation, latent unrest shown by seizure yesterday university by students at San Luis Potosi and Communist plans reported to spread [Page 843] agitation there and Guadalajara tonight. Theory Mexican revolutions start in provinces may prove as outdated as horseback fighting in contrast agitation in present modern capital and in any event discontent estimated as greater in provinces than Mexico City.
- 11.
- Evaluation Communist participation and direction being prepared [1 line of source text not declassified] Known Communist leaders plus organizational efficiency in student-labor groups and [less than 1 line of source text not declassified] close cooperation between Communists in them gives indication astute planning characteristic Communist methods which are principally though not exclusively responsible for success of disturbances to date.
In summary, imminent danger to government overthrow is not visible but remains unpredictable in present fluid shifts of power. No discernable elements of anti-American motivation are in order and public safety is not yet seriously jeopardized in a way to affect American lives and properties. Nevertheless, a marked deterioration is occurring, with possible effects subsequently harmful to our relations, in view of leadership now emerging. Significant fact is that monolithic government structure under one political group which has held power for more than 40 years is now definitely revealing deep fissures under the strains of economic and political discontent long glossed over; and in a deteriorating situation most disturbing factor is lack of government leadership. Authorities including police are clearly inept and a single serious incident such as death of wounded student may set off chain reaction.