107. Memorandum of Discussion at the 385th NSC Meeting1
SUBJECT
- Discussion at the 385th2 NSC Meeting on Thursday, November 6, 1958
Present at the 385th Meeting of the National Security Council were the President of the United Sates, Presiding; the Secretary of Defense; and the Director, Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization. Also present were the Secretary of the Treasury, the Director, Bureau of the Budget, and the Deputy Secretary of Defense. The following members of the Comparative Evaluation Group also attended this meeting: the Under Secretary of State; the Director of Central Intelligence; and the Special Assistants to the President for Science and Technology and for National Security [Typeset Page 368] Affairs. Also attending the meeting were the Director and Mr. John H. Daniel of the Weapons Systems Evaluation Group; the Assistant to the President; the White House Staff Secretary; the Assistant White House Staff Secretary; Lt. General Karl W. Barnes and Mr. Charles Ahern of the Central Intelligence Agency; the NSC Representative on Internal Security; and the Acting Executive Secretary, NSC.
There follows a summary of the discussion at the meeting and the main points taken.
1. COMPARATIVE EVALUATION GROUP
(NSC 5815)
Mr. Gray opened the meeting by noting that its purpose was to hear an oral presentation of a Comparative Evaluation Study of U.S. and Soviet Air Defense Radar Developments and Capabilities. He said the study was undertaken pursuant to NSC 5815, which established, under the NSC, a Comparative Evaluations Group (CEG) responsible for making comparative evaluations of U.S. and Soviet capabilities in selected weapons systems. He mentioned that the CEG is comprised of the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff; the Under Secretary of State; the Director of Central Intelligence; the Chairman of the President’s [Facsimile Page 2] Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities; and the President’s Special Assistants for Science and Technology and for National Security Affairs. He said that the CEG was assisted in this study by Vice Admiral John H. Sides, Director, WSEG, and by Lt. General Earl W. Barnes, USAF (Ret.), of the Central Intelligence Agency. He then called upon Admiral Sides who made an oral presentation of the highlights of the study, a copy of which has been deposited in the files of the Executive Secretary, NSC.
Following Admiral Sides’ oral presentation, the Secretary of Defense made inquiry as to what, if any, radar capabilities the Soviets have below 500 feet. Admiral Sides responded that the Soviets would not have too much capability below 500 feet. He mentioned that 500 feet is generally accepted as a realistic, minimum low level attack altitude because any attack attempted beneath the 500 foot level could result in serious trouble for the attacker.
Mr. Gray indicated that, as to future evaluations of this kind, the CEG, at a meeting held on October 27, recommended that the following topics, listed in order of suggested priority, be considered by the President as suitable subjects for comparative evaluations studies: (a) long-range ballistic missiles systems (to include ICBM’s and IRBM’s, but to exclude air-breathers); (b) computer technology; and (c) submarine weapons systems and anti-submarine warfare capabilities. Mr. Gray suggested that the President might wish to designate one of these topics as the subject of the next study to be undertaken by the CEG.
The President stated that he personally favored the topic “submarine weapons systems and anti-submarine warfare capabilities”, and Mr. Gray pointed out that this was also the selection of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The President inquired whether we knew enough about computer technology to make a meaningful evaluation. It was his thought that a study of computer technology would be dependent in large measure upon the opinions of Dr. Killian’s technical people as distinguished from the WSEG experts.
Dr. Killian thought that a meaningful evaluation could be made of computer technology, and he emphasized the view that such an evaluation would yield considerable valuable information concerning important aspects of various Soviet weapons systems.
Admiral Sides pointed out that it was not intended that WSEG should make all of the evaluations to be conducted pursuant to NSC 5815. He said that if computer technology were selected as a topic that others, such as Dr. Killian, might be given responsibility for the evaluation study.
[Typeset Page 369] [Facsimile Page 3]The Director of Central Intelligence, reverting to the fact that the President had earlier indicated that he favored item (c), above, as the topic for the next evaluation study, stated that at the moment the Soviets are converting to and starting to build a new class of submarine. He said that we do not have much data as yet concerning this new class of submarine, and while the new sub will not be coming in for a year or two, it might be desirable to put off the selection of this subject for evaluation study until additional information is available.
The President again inquired as to what we know about Soviet computer systems, and Dr. Killian indicated that we have mixed information on that score. Dr. Killian commented there is reason to believe that the Soviets have misled the West concerning their computer technology capabilities. He said it appears that the Soviets may have developed much theory with respect to computer technology, but not too much technical apparatus in areas involving practical application of computer technology theories.
The Secretary of Defense noted that although the Soviets have embarked on the development of a new generation of submarines, the new subs will not actually be coming in for a year or two. He said in the meantime there is a present threat from existing Soviet submarines which threat will be with us for at least two or three years. It was his thought, therefore, that it would be desirable to make an evaluation study of this existing threat.
The President concluded that the next topic to be undertaken by the CEG as the subject of a comparative evaluation study should be submarine weapons systems and anti-submarine warfare capabilities. It was the President’s thought that when the submarine evaluation is completed, it should be followed by an evaluation of computer technology.
The National Security Council:
Noted and discussed the first report of the Comparative Evaluations Group, pursuant to NSC 5815, as presented orally at the meeting by the Director, Weapons Systems Evaluation Group.
NSC Representative on Internal Security