5. Memorandum From the Secretary of State’s Special Assistant for Intelligence (Armstrong) to the Secretary of State 1
SUBJECT
- NIE 22–55: Probable Developments in France 2
The Intelligence Advisory Committee concludes that, except in the unlikely event of a severe domestic economic crisis or external developments seriously undermining France’s position in Europe or North Africa, the right-center orientation of French cabinets will probably prevail until the 1956 national elections.3 The present Faure government and its successors are expected to make little change in the Mendes-France policies toward Indochina, North Africa, and European integration and to continue the economic expansion program of the past year and a half.
Regardless of the electoral system governing the 1956 elections, the extremist parties are likely to lose some of their present parliamentary strength but the elections are not expected to result in any basic change in the pattern of Assembly politics or in the unstable and negative character of French governments.
France’s economic prospects are moderately favorable; however, its rate of economic expansion over the next few years is likely to be somewhat less than the European average and considerably below that of West Germany.
France will almost certainly continue to regard its close alignment with the US and the UK through NATO as vital to its security. If it considered itself faced with the threat of nuclear devastation, however, France might seek a neutral position. There is no prospect of any increase in French defense expenditures, and France will probably adopt policies designed to slow the tempo of the German military build-up.
French policy toward North Africa will lead to some liberalization, but France will use force to maintain what it considers the essential elements of its control in North Africa. If the US appeared to favor the North African nationalists, it would invite serious complications in its relations with France and in its utilization of the Moroccan bases. In [Page 10] Vietnam, France probably will reluctantly keep in step with US efforts to bolster the Diem government. On the other hand, the French are likely to adhere to the Geneva agreement to hold elections in 1956 unless faced with strong, combined US–UK pressure.4
This estimate will not be released to any foreign governments.
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, 751.00/4–1255. Secret. No drafting information is given on the source text. The handwritten note, “Sec saw,” appears on the source text.↩
- Dated March 29. (Ibid., INR–NIE Files)↩
- A general election was expected no later than June 1956. On November 30, 1955, the National Assembly was dissolved, and the election took place on January 2, 1956.↩
- Article 7 of the Final Declaration of the Geneva Conference on the Problem of Restoring Peace in Indochina, July 21, 1954, required that a general election be held in Vietnam in July 1956; for text of the declaration, see Foreign Relations, 1952–1954, vol. XVI, p. 1540.↩