212. Telegram From the Embassy in the United Kingdom to the Department of State1
5214. As of 5 p.m. today Conservatives have lead in UK general election of 63 seats with 10 returns still to come in, thus assuring them substantial majority, probably 60 to 70 seats over Labor, in new Parliament.
Returns so far indicate poll may be only 75 percent, roughly two million lower than in 1951 election. Conservative gains resulted not from switch of votes from Labor to Conservatives but from abstentions which were much greater among Labor’s usual partisans (approximately 1.5 million drop from 1951 results in Labor vote as compared to 500,000 drop for Conservatives).
Result so far shows average swing towards Conservatives of 2 percent over 1951 election, but actual figures varied widely among constituencies. In close contests prominent Labor members often retained their seats in spite of general trend against Labor Party and front bench members of both parties probably have all been returned.
From Conservative Party viewpoint election has presented unparalleled and perhaps unique opportunity to achieve decisive victory. Genuinely good record of government, prosperity, relatively calm and improved international situation, harmonious allied relations, party unity and organization in contrast to Labor Party disunity, quiet nature of election, and just plain good luck all conspired in Conservatives’ [Page 602] favors; even weather, bringing rain to midland industrial areas on polling day, helped Conservatives. On other hand size of majority may reduce sense of obligation of Conservative backbenchers to support government and make preservation party unity more difficult in future.
Present government has won election without having to make any hard and fast commitments during campaign. Closest approach was statement that consideration would be given to reducing two-year period of national service if top level meetings with USSR prove successful in reducing East-West tensions. Government spokesmen also hinted that measures to curb unofficial strikes might be considered, but in neither case is there unqualified obligation. This permits government to take over a new Parliament with free hands.
Substantially increased majority in new Parliament should also permit government much greater freedom of action to take possible distasteful measures in economic or foreign policy fields. They will enjoy sufficient support to move ahead without keeping constant watch on opinions of their own backbenchers as in last Parliament. Possible result may be even firmer British position in great power talks with Russians. Another may be to give government greater leeway to adopt controversial or less popular economic measures.
Since Churchill’s campaigning entirely restricted to his own and neighboring constituencies (American correspondents have tended overplay his and Bevan’s significance in campaign) Eden’s prestige seems increased by clearcut victory for which he may get much credit.2
While Attlee looks like spent force alternate leader clearly has not emerged. To left wing in party Bevan’s more energetic campaign would tend to justify his claim to leadership. Gaitskell however emerged with much enhanced reputation. Bevanites have more or less held their own despite defeat of Michael Foot3 and Geoffrey Bing4 though at this stage it is difficult to estimate relative effect of lowered turnout, redistribution of boundary seats and campaigning of extremists.