189. Memorandum From the Deputy Under Secretary of State for Economic
Affairs (Prochnow) to
the Chairman of the Council on Foreign Economic Policy (Randall)1
Washington, November 14,
1956.
SUBJECT
- Comments on Suggested Measures to Aid Poland and Hungary Over and
Above Economic Aid
Mr. Hoover has asked me to
comment upon the various suggestions which you made to Mr. Jackson as to further steps which might
be taken to assist Poland and Hungary.2
The events intervening since you wrote your memorandum to Mr. Jackson change the situation as far as
Hungary is concerned. It is not now possible to make an evaluation as to
the exact nature of the present government in Hungary. Therefore, our
comments on Hungary should be read in the light of the above
statement.
In the case of any satellite country, if the President is prepared to
make a determination that a particular country is no longer under
domination or control “by the foreign government or foreign organization
controlling the world Communist movement,” the United States Government
will be in a position to take a number of steps to increase trade and
other economic relationships with the particular country
[Page 448]
involved. It would be possible, for
example, to give economic assistance, to enter into PL 480 transactions and to extend
most-favored-nation treatment. However, until that determination is
made, measures which can be taken are limited. It would not now be
possible to make the above determination in the case of Poland.
The Polish Government has indicated that it is not in a position to
accept United States economic assistance, though it would be interested
in United States credits on account of its investment and consumer
needs.3
Attached are specific comments on each of the suggestions which you made
in your memorandum of November 1 to Mr. Jackson.
[Attachment]
-
“1. Offer to sell agricultural surpluses to Poland and
Hungary at world prices for dollars. An earlier request from
Poland for such action on our part was turned down quite
recently.”4
Urgent and continuing consideration is being given by the
Department to the possibility of making surplus agricultural
commodities available to Poland and Hungary at any time that
such a step would further US objectives. The Polish
Government has already been informed of US willingness to
extend economic assistance without political strings.
Agricultural products could be included under such
assistance under Titles II or III5 of Public Law 480.
With respect to Hungary the United States on October 29
authorized the use by American voluntary agencies in Austria
of 2,000 tons of food to Hungarians needing food relief. On
November 3, a program of $20 million of emergency relief was
offered to the Hungarian people. Events in Hungary over the
November 4-5 week-end have made it impossible for the US to
ship relief goods into Hungary for the present but every
effort is being made to allocate as much of this aid as is
necessary for the immediate relief of some 10,000 Hungarian
refugees in Austria.
[Page 449]
Meantime the Department is considering the advisability of a
revision in US policy to permit dollar sales of agricultural
products at world market prices to Poland (and perhaps
Hungary, depending on further developments in that country)
for cash or credit. Should the Department recommend a
revision in current US policy and that recommendation were
accepted, the US would be able to permit sales for dollars
at world market prices for the item in which Poland thus far
has shown the chief interest, namely wheat. The other major
agricultural product that would be affected would be cotton.
If in addition to cash sales the US should also permit
extension of credit, Poland could then apply for an
Export-Import Bank loan for up to 18 months. Commodity
Credit Corporation also has a program of up to 3 year loans
to American exporters—the benefits of which the latter are
permitted to pass on to foreign buyers.
Other avenues for making agricultural commodities available
to Poland and Hungary would be through sales for local
currency or barter (both under Public Law 480) provided the
Congress would amend the law to permit such transactions or
the President declared these countries to be “friendly” to
the United States. The Administration attempted
unsuccessfully during the last session of Congress to obtain
an amendment to Public Law 480 to permit barter transactions
with the satellite countries.
- “2. Move at once to promote trade with these two countries by
taking the following steps:
- a.
-
Extend most-favored-nation treatment to Poland and
Hungary and thus make available to them tariff
concessions now enjoyed by free world nations.”
Section 5 of the Trade Agreements Extension Act of
19516 reads
as follows:
“As soon as practicable, the President shall
take such action as is necessary to suspend,
withdraw or prevent the application of any
reduction in any rate of duty, or binding of any
existing customs or excise treatment, or other
concession contained in any trade agreement
entered into under authority of Section 350 of the
Tariff Act of 1930, as amended and extended, to
imports from the Union of Soviet Socialist
Republics and to imports from any nation or area
dominated or controlled by the foreign government
or foreign organization controlling the world
Communist movement.”
[Page 450]
Treaties of friendship, commerce, and consular rights
between the United States and Poland, and between
the United States and Hungary, containing a
most-favored-nation provision in customs matters,
were accordingly terminated effective January 5,
19527 and July 5, 1952,8 respectively.
A Presidential determination that Hungary and/or
Poland were not dominated or controlled by the
foreign government or foreign organization
controlling the world Communist movement would be a
prerequisite to making available to these countries
tariff concessions now enjoyed by free world
nations. In the absence of such a determination the
language of Section 5 would appear to preclude any
other action by the Executive Branch at this time
pending amendment by the Congress.
- b.
-
Relax our export controls which sharply limit trade
with Poland and Hungary, and seek to obtain
appropriate relaxation of multilateral controls.
On the basis of the brutal Soviet suppression of the
revolt in Hungary, it appears that the Soviets have
now determined to take a harder line in the
satellites. Under these circumstances it would be
premature to consider the relaxation of either our
United States or the COCOM strategic controls. . . . Since the
strategic control lists are highly selective, there
is a wide range of possibility for an increase in
trade with Poland and Hungary in non-strategic
items. It should additionally be noted that since
Poland is the principal trans-shipment point for
shipments to Communist China, carried largely in
Polish vessels, any strategic relaxation in trade
controls applicable to Poland would result in
increased diversions of Western-origin strategic
goods to the Communist Chinese.
-
“3. Advocate membership for Poland and Hungary in
international financial and economic organizations such as
GATT, the World Bank,
and the International Finance Corporation.”
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade is primarily
designed to facilitate international trade among countries
maintaining the essence of the free enterprise and
competitive economic system. It is not particularly well
geared to meet the problems of countries whose trade is
entirely controlled by the central government. Portugal,
Spain and Yugoslavia, for example, are not members of GATT. It is doubtful whether
the economic benefits deriving from membership would be
particularly attractive to either Poland or Hungary.
Participation in GATT
requires tariff negotiations with other countries prior to
membership. A time gap of some length would therefore be
indicated before actual membership could be effected. Tariff
concessions, moreover, would have little significance in
terms of imports into Poland and Hungary and other countries
would accordingly be
[Page 451]
reluctant to make meaningful concessions on their part.
This exemplifies the marginal usefulness to Poland and
Hungary of membership in GATT.
Poland and Hungary are eligible to join International Bank
and International Monetary Fund. Poland was a member of both
these institutions but withdrew. At the time of this
membership, its quota in the International Bank was $125
million (of which 2% must be paid in gold or dollars). Its
quota in the International Monetary Fund was also $125
million of which 25% normally would need to be paid in gold
or dollars. Their interest in joining the International
Finance Corporation will depend on subsequent internal
developments; presumably they would not be interested unless
they were prepared to foster private business
enterprises.
- “4. Negotiate a treaty of Friendship, Naviagation and Commerce
with Poland and Hungary such as we have with other nations.”
- a.
- Treaties of friendship, commerce, and navigation with
Poland and Hungary were terminated in 1952 pursuant to
provisions of the Trade Agreements Extension Act of
1951, the purpose of the provisions being to secure
denial of trade agreement concessions to countries under
Soviet or Communist domination. An attempt to negotiate
new treaties with those countries would raise questions
as to whether the countries are now free from such
domination and are likely to remain free. It is probable
also that questions of East-West trade controls and the
effect of certain standard treaty provisions thereon
would need to be considered.
- b.
- It appears probable that independent governments in
Hungary and Poland will be under serious threat of
restoration of Soviet dominance for some time. United
States proposals for treaties of friendship, commerce,
and navigation are frequently subject to attack from
Communist sources as instruments of imperialistic
economic domination. Since such treaties cannot be
expected to immediately produce significant advantages
to the signatory countries, it should be considered
whether attempts to negotiate such treaties might not
have an immediately disadvantageous propaganda effect,
or even provide bases for some sort of intervention by
the U.S.S.R.
- c.
- It is understood that in the case of Poland the
government intends to retain its communistic system. The
normal treaty of friendship, commerce, and navigation
has been designed to establish standards for countries
where free enterprise prevails at least to an
appreciable extent. No treaty project for a country with
a wholly socialistic economy has yet been devised, and
there would be serious problems involved in the
development of such a project. Some of the provisions of
the normal treaty could doubtless be adapted, but the
heart of the treaty consists in the provisions relating
to private investment, and those could have little
application in a communistic economy.
- d.
- In view of the above considerations, it would appear
to be worth serious consideration whether the best
policy would not be to await further stabilization of
the situations in Poland and Hungary,
[Page 452]
and then to consider the
establishment of treaty relationships in connection with
a study of prevailing legislation and general economic
policies in those countries.
- “5. Review the advisability of further adjusting claims which
the United States may have against Poland or Hungary, such as
those arising out of World War I debt, nationalization and
expropriation, lend-lease, defaulted dollar bonds, and surplus
property sales.”
There would appear to be little room for beneficial adjustment as
concerns Polish World War I debts. Most foreign countries consider
World War I debts as completely dead, and Poland doubtless has no
thought of ever resuming payments. Its last such payment was in
1930, and with the exception of Finland no other debtor countries
are making payments. Furthermore, a unilateral adjustment with
Poland would raise problems regarding the status of all World War I
debts.
Surplus property credits also do not lend themselves well to
adjustment. The magnitude of these claims is relatively well
established and similar claims exist against a number of other
countries. In such cases, it has been United States policy not to
write down claims even when United States aid is simultaneously
extended to the country in question. Poland has been making regular
dollar payments on the annual principal installment of these
credits, but not on the interest installment.
There is no lend-lease account outstanding with Poland.
The settlement of defaulted dollar bonds held by private United
States residents is a matter ordinarily negotiated by the Foreign
Bondholders Protective Council, Inc. We might wish to suggest to the
Poles that they reopen these negotiations if this should be
consistent with our broad approach to Polish debts.
The value of United States claims arising out of Polish
nationalization and expropriation has never been calculated closely.
As an example: very rough estimates made in 1946 and 1951 vary from
$80 to $150 million. There is obviously much room for adjustment as
concerns these claims. We should welcome reopened negotiations, but
would want to examine the individual claims closely before arriving
at a precise magnitude in our negotiating position.9