267. Memorandum From the Secretary of State’s Special Assistant for Intelligence (Cumming) to the Secretary of State1
SUBJECT
- Consideration by NSC of Special Report on Indonesia
The following are my thoughts on the recommendation of FE that the National Security Council take no action at this time on the Special Report on Indonesia which has been concurred in by the NSC Planning Board.
The situation in Indonesia has been steadily deteriorating to the advantage of the communists for some time past. From time to time, there have been temporary improvements in the situation such as for example, during the administration of the anti-communist Harahap Government which held office during the latter part of 1955 and early 1956. Such temporary setbacks to the communists have, however, always been followed by a relapse in their favor.
At the present time, the cabinet is headed by Prime Minister Djuanda who is anti-communist and within the Indonesian framework of neutrality between East and West inclined to be pro-Western. However, the Cabinet contains one crypto communist and at least three other individuals who are, to say the least, fellow travelers.
The National Conference recently held in Djakarta and participated in by representatives of the Central Government, as well as some of the dissident leaders from the outlying regions, produced inconclusive results. Preliminary reports suggest that such successes as it may have achieved are only superficial and along the customary [Page 449] lines of face-saving compromise, typical of Indonesian “solutions” to political disputes. In my opinion, there is no evidence to suggest that the Conference has produced “solutions” which in the months to come will stem the steady growth of communist strength on the island of Java.
In my opinion, the fact that the Conference did not result in a complete victory for President Sukarno or for the supporters, witting or unwitting, of policies which have proved to be to communist advantage is due to the firm position taken by the anti-communist dissident leaders from the outlying areas of Indonesia (especially Sumatra and the Celebes)…
I believe that unless we embark on the program recommended by the Special NSC Committee and approved by the NSC Planning Board, we will, in a few months time, see a resumption of the cycle of events to which we have long been accustomed to Indonesia: namely, long periods of growing Communist strength interrupted only by temporary set-backs such as during the Harahap government and perhaps briefly at the present juncture following the National Conference.
Due to the geographical makeup of Indonesia, we have the opportunity given us as in no other part of the world to take active measures to stem and perhaps to turn back growing internal Communist strength. The country is an archipelago. The central Island of Java shows growing Communist strength despite the fact that anti-Communists have a numerical and perhaps moral superiority even though they are somewhat disorganized. The outlying areas, notably Sumatra, contain most of the natural wealth of the country and are strongly anti-Communist. To allow this anti-Communism, …to lose its present momentum, …could lead, in my opinion, either to an inevitable creeping extension of Communism to the whole country or perhaps to a civil war which might result in fragmentation of the republic, if an anti-Communist control over the whole country proved impossible of attainment.
- Source: Department of State, S/S–NSC Files: Lot 63 D 351, NSC 5518 Series. Top Secret. See footnote 1, Supra.↩