751G.5/1–454: Telegram
The Chargé in France (Joyce) to the Department of State
secret
Paris, January 4, 1954—6
p.m.
2478. Repeated information Saigon 250.
- 1.
- Foreign Office officials expressed confidence today re ultimate success French Union military forces IC but did not rule out possibility Viet Minh may achieve short-term military successes in coming weeks. Seriousness latter possibility lies in its impact French political situation. Although political situation France unexpectedly quiet this score at present, French position IC based on delicate balance which could be tipped in favor negotiated settlement by Viet Minh military successes although latter might prove to be of relatively short duration. [Page 939] This connection, they do not rule out possibility of high-level approach in name Viet Minh to negotiate being made through country such as India or Indonesia in order create further difficulties. Consider possibility Laniel’s retention post Prime Minister important in keeping situation in France re IC in hand. They stated Laniel sending Ambassador letter today making reference his (Laniel’s) conversation President Eisenhower Bermuda1 and raising French need for additional military assistance including B–26 aircraft (presumably along lines indicated Saigon telegram 1151, Paris 351 January 3). (Pertinent parts Laniel’s letter will be telegraphed when received.)2
- 2.
- Re military situation, they stated principal threat directed against Dien Bien Phu with 316th Viet Minh division to North with elements 308th and 312th Viet Minh divisions reportedly moving westward to join 316th; however, still do not know whether Viet Minh will attack or bypass Dien Bien Phu. Also, still do not know Viet Minh intentions Thakhek region. Savannakhet–Seno area strongly fortified; however, intend dislodge Viet Minh from position on Mekong. Although not certain how many Viet Minh this region, do know that four Viet Minh battalions reached river (this basis for use figure by press) with one having been left on road near Lao border together with two other battalions in flanking positions. Five Viet Minh battalions were left in rear and reserve positions central Annam. Cutting river communications between Savannakhet and Vientiane not yet serious (as noted by press), although two weekly convoys carrying coal, equipment, etc., for river movement from Savannakhet to Vientiane have been stopped thus far. Be serious if situation continued beyond January; however, anticipate elimination Viet Minh Thakhek area by end January.
Joyce