7510.00/11–2753
Memorandum by the Director of the Office of Philippine and Southeast Asian Affairs (Bonsal) to the Assistant Secretary of State for Far Eastern Affairs (Robertson)1
Subject:
- Westward movement of Viet Minh units
Army G–2 tells us that four of the six Viet Minh infantry divisions in North and Central Viet Nam are now moving westward. Two divisions, plus elements of a third are moving from their recent positions North and West of the Hanoi-Haiphong perimeter in the direction of Son-La-Lai-Chau. One division reinforced with half of another is moving from Central Viet Nam, south of the perimeter, in the direction of Central Laos.
Two divisions, one near the Northern edge of the perimeter (312) and one of the Southern edge (320) remain in place apparently as a threat to penetration of the perimeter defenses and to force defensive units to remain.
We do not know how far the Viet Minh troops have advanced, but French Intelligence estimates that the movement discloses an intent to occupy the area between the Red River to the North and the Black River to the South which is the stronghold of the Thai tribesmen who harass the Viet Minh, through guerrilla activity under French leadership, in the general area Lai-Chau–Son-La.
Perhaps in anticipation of this movement, the French Commander, General Cogny, dropped six parachute battalions at Dien Bien Phu on November 20, and has sent patrols from there North to Lai-Chau. An airstrip has been rehabilitated and some heavy equipment dropped. This operation was the largest air force exercise so far executed in the war.
Continued occupation of Dien Bien Phu will block Viet Minh use of one of the two principal East-West roads leading into Northern Laos. Viet Minh attacks against Franco-Vietnamese installations in that area may be an indication of renewed Viet Minh incursions against Laos, or else an effort to clear away forces having a harassing capacity against the Viet Minh.
If the movement of the 325 division from its present location in central Viet Nam is continued in the direction of central Laos it would support the hypothesis that invasion of Laos is the principal Viet Minh plan for the time being.
We have insufficient information of the enemy movements or of the French plans to arrive at any firm conclusion as to the importance of [Page 887] this development. The enemy movement may not take its final form for several weeks. Nevertheless, the Viet Minh are moving some forty to fifty thousand troops away from the perimeter for a still undisclosed purpose.
(You will recall that the French were informed on November 24 that the U.S. would supply twenty five additional C–47s. They are expected to be in Indochina by the end of December. The current operation will substantially increase the requirement for airlift capacity whether defensive or offensive operations are undertaken.)
- Drafted by Robert E. Hoey of PSA. The map which accompanies the source text has not been reproduced.↩