763.00/2–2053: Telegram
No. 852
The United States High Commissioner
for Austria (Thompson) to the Department of
State
2461. In late stages of campaign, Peoples Party has sought to win over fringe voters by exploiting bugbear of “Red” (Socialist) Chancellor, and pointing to “shift-to-the-right” trend in America and Europe; denouncing VDU policies as endangering Austria’s territorial unity; flaying splinter parties as hirelings of Socialists who interested in seeing non-Marxist votes wasted. Socialists have replied to PP by reviving 1947 scandal of secret PP–Communist talks, pointing to services of Renner and Koerner to Austrian Republic, and charging PP had considered ousting Figl in favor of “Raab–Kamitz minority Cabinet”; Socialists also lambasting VDU by recalling past results of Pan-Germanism for Austria and continuing strong attacks on Communists as Soviet stooges, etc.
Despite heat generated in these exchanges, campaign remained on the whole calmest, most moderate and objective of eight Parliamentary campaigns in history of Austrian republic. Political leaders from both big parties have cited this fact as demonstrative proof of Austrian political maturity and firm establishment of democracy in Austria.
On eve of vote, earlier general opinion no landslide to be expected has become more firm. Almost all observers opine that: Communists will not do much more than keep present mandate strength, VDU sure to be biggest and perhaps only winner, most VDU gains will be at expense of Peoples Party, but latter will retain narrow plurality over Socialists who will deviate only slightly from present strength. Some Socialists, including Schaerf, believe SP has real chance to obtain plurality, and PP leaders do not entirely discount this. Current guestimates tend to put new mandate distribution at PP 69–75 (77 in 1949) SP 65–70 (67), VDU 18–24 (16), Communists 3–6 (5). All observers admit difficult assess VDU strength with accuracy, and any upset apt to be result their gain or loss beyond present anticipations.
Party negotiations on composition of new government expected to begin on Monday and may last well into first half of March, because of likely SP demands for more representation in Cabinet and strong PP resistance to any encroachments on key PP positions. [Page 1842] VDU inclusion still appears unlikely, will hinge on vote outcome and developments in course of PP–SP negotiations.