763.00/2–1353: Telegram
No. 849
The United States High Commissioner
for Austria (Thompson) to the Department of
State
2379. In view of forthcoming elections and report submitted in Embtel 2332 February 111 reviewing current Austrian economic situation, following evaluation of political situation in Austria may be helpful to Department in its consideration of future policy re Austrian treaty and review of US policies toward Austria.
Election campaign has been relatively dull with both coalition partners showing remarkable restraint in view of known major differences between them. Since party loyalties are exceedingly stable in Austrian election turns on opinions of a relatively few voters. Communists are not expected improve their showing significantly and might even lose some of the five Parliament seats they now hold although some doubt exists because of uncertainty extent to which voters may be taken in by People’s opposition label.
No great change expected in highly disciplined Socialist vote and party might gain or lose a few seats.
VDU, which is conglomeration of neo-Nazis, nationalists, Pan-Germans, and persons simply dissatisfied with long coalition rule, is most difficult to predict. Consensus appears to be that they will increase their present representative of 16 to a figure ranging from 18 to 25. Any prediction is the more difficult as internal tensions within party appear to be increasing with the election campaign.
Most of VDU gains are expected to be at expense of People’s Party which might be reduced from present 77 to neighborhood of 70 seats. Most important election possibility, therefore, is that Socialists who now hold 67 seats could come out of election as largest single party although their leaders do not actually appear to expect this.
[Page 1835]Despite calmness campaign, and regardless of election results, negotiations over formation of government are likely to be bitter and extended. This is result not only of basic differences over economic policy reported in reference telegram, but also unrest and dissatisfaction with coalition on part of right wing of People’s Party and left wing of Socialists. The former in particular feel that People’s Party has come off second best in coalition government compromises with Socialists and that stronger attitude is called for. It was this feeling which in measure brought about fall of government in October and precipitated elections. This feeling also gives rise to numerous rumors that Figl will be replaced by Raab, Hartman, Hurdes, or other People’s Party leader. There are similar rumors that Socialists might replace Schaerf by Waldbrunner for similar reasons. There is much discussion of possible People’s Party coalition with VDU or attempt to bring VDU into government. This appears to be inspired chiefly by desire of People’s Party to improve negotiations position with Socialists who would almost certainly refuse to enter coalition with that group. VDU candidates appear to be of much higher calibre than their present representative in Parliament but future orientation of Party itself and cohesion of its elements impossible to predict.
Chief political problem for Austria remains the state treaty and end of occupation. While burden of occupation weighs ever more heavily Austrian people seem realistic and remarkably resigned to its continuation. Foreign Minister Gruber’s preoccupation with state of Austrian opinion this subject believe in large measure attributable personal identification with efforts to conclude treaty and effect on his political fortunes of any action implying recognition of failure. His current policy is to force Soviet to state price for conclusion of treaty and then to see whether amount of assistance from West, meaning, of course, the US, would reduce burden to point where Austrian Government would be willing to carry it. Advantages of Soviet withdrawal are so great that disposition of Austrians particularly in Soviet Zone would probably be to pay almost any price they could possibly meet. Most effective Communist attack on Austrian Government and West Powers has been to attribute failure conclude treaty to lack of Austrian neutrality, and should serious treaty discussions ever develop it would be astonishing if Soviets failed to exploit this situation. Austrians are aware that Soviets have never fully exploited their position in Austria and that present onerous situation could become well nigh intolerable should they decide to do so.
Despite Soviet propaganda and VDU extremism Embassy does not believe there is currently serious recrudesence of Nazism in Austria although dominant position which Neizis have hitherto [Page 1836] maintained in VDU is cause for concern. Problem which is likely to be more serious in future is that of Pan-Germanism over which both Soviets and French have shown great concern. This feeling which has traditionally been held by approximately 20 percent of Austrian population will doubtless be stimulated as Germany regains economic and political strength, if Austria remains under occupation.
Embassy does not believe Austrians likely voluntarily to turn to Communism in any circumstances. Danger could result from increased Soviet pressure in lower Austria should population feel their situation hopeless but they have already shown great courage in withstanding such tactics. Another serious threat to Austrian political stability could come from economic breakdown, but otherwise no rupture of social peace is foreseen for duration of occupation, owing to unifying force of common resistance to Soviet threat.
We are somewhat concerned as to what Soviet reactions in Austria may be to repeated poor showing of Austrian Communists in elections, and increased East West tensions, particularly in Germany. Soviet action to force partition is always possibility and although we do not expect precipitant action because of risk of war, creeping paralysis by steady Soviet encroachment would be most difficult to handle.
One of chief US problems in Austria continues to be development sound economy which difficult in country where every government action must be negotiated by political parties holding sharply opposing economic philosophies and representing distinct class interests and where even the laundries have a political label. One of our most difficult immediate problems will be that arising out of application of East West trade controls. Considering situation in Austrian controls have been remarkably effective, but strains are developing which, in face of decreasing American aid and greater export trade problems, will be increasingly difficult to withstand. We also have usual problems arising from long continued occupation which is exaggerated by location of our troops in area of Salzburg and housing shortage. Latter is also related to refugee problem which continues burdensome.
- Telegram 2332 reported on Austria’s economic situation noting that success in this area had been achieved so far largely on the basis of U.S. aid totaling $1.4 billion with the impressive result that industrial production was between 60–70 percent above the prewar level. It also noted that U.S. interests in Austria were primarily political and that trade between the United States and Austria or foreign investments were of small significance to the United States. (763.5 MSP/2–1153)↩