741.00/9–2651
Memorandum by the Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs (Perkins) to the Secretary of State 1
Subject: The Labor Government and the British Electorate
It is generally assumed by the majority of the Press and the public in the United Kingdom that the Conservatives will win the general election on October 25. Speculative attention is focused on the margin of victory, the Conservatives themselves believing that they will get a working majority of 30 to 40 seats.
Major Causes of the Decline in Popularity of the Labor Government Among the British Electorate. The Labor Government has lost much of the popularity which carried it into office in 1945, a loss which has already been reflected in the greatly reduced majority Labor obtained in the 1950 election. Chief among the causes of the decline in popular favor are:
- 1.
- Continued Austerity. There has been an increasing amount of criticism of the Government by the civilian population for not taking more steps to alleviate the conditions of austerity which have existed in the United Kingdom since 1939. The food situation is well-known and the supplies of meat available to the public are at a minimum. The production of clothing and household effects is rigidly controlled by the Government, and, when obtainable, these items are sold at exorbitantly high prices. Fuel is in short supply, especially coal, and there are in winter frequent stoppages of the gas and electricity services.
- 2.
- Cost of Living. The rise in the cost of living has meant increased hardship for the population and the Government has been subjected to serious criticism on this development.
- 3.
- Governmental Controls. The Labor Government has retained many of the rigid wartime controls of business, industry and agriculture. These are resented by many persons as interference in the free conduct of private business and affairs and because of the redtape surrounding the simplest transactions.
- 4.
- Inefficiency. The Conservatives contend that there have been many examples of Governmental inefficiency, the chief ones being the heavy loss suffered by the nationalized coal, British Railways and civil aviation industries and the recurrent fuel crises involving cuts in gas and electricity supplies which affect not only the housewives but also the output of factories.
- 5.
- The Recurring Financial Crisis. Despite serious efforts by Sir Stafford Cripps and the Government to restore Great Britain’s financial [Page 973] position crises have occurred at disturbingly frequent intervals. After the devaluation of the pound sterling matters improved and it looked as though the United Kingdom was on the road to the restoration of its economic and financial independence. However, the Korean War intervened and since that time the United Kingdom’s financial and economic position has considerably deteriorated due to the greatly increased defense efforts, the rise of world prices and the ensuing drain on Great Britain’s finances.
- 6.
- The Decline of Britain’s World Position. The action taken by the Labor Government immediately after the War satisfied the demands for independence by certain sections of the Empire and gave to the Government a feeling of satisfaction that they have solved these long-standing sores. However, certain elements of the Conservative Party have described these policies as a disruption of the Empire. No doubt these expressions of the Tories have influenced many persons who regard the Labor Government’s actions as responsible for the weakening of the British world position.
- 7.
- Foreign Policies. Foreign policy is perhaps the only common denominator between the different parties in British political life. The emphasis is frequently placed on different methods in dealing with a problem but nonetheless British foreign policy in general is constant no matter what Government is in power. However, Mr. Attlee and his associates have come in for considerable criticism lately on the grounds that they have not been forceful enough in dealing with the current Iranian and Egyptian problems. No doubt the Conservatives would have used more forceful measures in coping with Mr. Mossadeq and probably also with the Egyptians. Alleged Governmental weakness on this aspect of foreign policy may well be injected into the campaign.
- 8.
- Antagonism of the Middle Class. The Labor Government has often, and with some justification, been accused by the Tories of class warfare. They have followed the world tendency of penalizing the wealthy class, but of more significance in connection with the coming election are the indiscretions made on occasion by Cabinet ministers which have not endeared them to the middle class, viz., Mr. Shinwell’s statement in a speech that he didn’t care a “tinker’s dam” about the middle class. History has shown that generally speaking the outcome of elections depends on the floating vote which is composed largely of the middle class.
Reasons for Mr. Attlee’s Decision to Call a General Election.
In 1950 the Labor Government was returned to power with a precarious majority and it has remained in power under difficult conditions. It has been faced with the possibility of being out-voted at any time in Parliament on a major issue, and an election would have been called in humiliating circumstances.
More positive reasons which impelled Mr. Attlee to call an election now presumably are:
- 1.
- Opposition Attacks. Through a policy of constant Conservative vigilance and parliamentary techniques the Labor Government has been kept under tension and strain with the result that Governmental business has been hampered, and the physical resistance of [Page 974] the Ministers weakened by required presence in the House for long all-night sessions.
- 2.
- Schism in the Labor Party. Earlier irritants in the form of fellow-travellers and crypto-Communists in the ranks of the Labor Party were largely eliminated in the 1950 election. However, the recent Bevan schism caused the Government real concern. Bevan desires the Labor Party leadership and is alleged to believe that an early election would help him on his road because the Conservatives would not be able to cope with the extreme difficulties in the year ahead, would then be thrown out of office and he might lead a triumphant Labor Party back to Government. Attlee and Morrison have for the moment brought Bevan to heel and closed the Party’s ranks in the face of Tory onslaughts. However, the schism is not healed and Attlee and the Party leaders have been aware that at any moment Bevan might even cause the fall of the Government. By calling the election at this time, Attlee doubtless hopes also to avoid or mitigate the differences with the Bevan wing at the scheduled Party Conference in early October.
- 3.
- Worsening of the Financial and Economic Situations. The decline in the United Kingdom’s dollar balances, the rise of world prices, the balance of trade figures and the generally increasing debility of the British financial situation over the last six months point to the dangers of another financial crisis. Given the weak Parliamentary position of the Government, this prospect must have caused Mr. Attlee considerable concern. He could certainly see the dangers in such a situation to the life of his Government.
- 4.
- Criticism of Foreign Policy. Although foreign policy of the British Government, whatever party is in power, is fairly constant, the Labor Government has had to be vigilant in the face of the Opposition’s efforts to criticize it in its dealing with other countries. The recognition of the Communist Chinese Government and the British attitude in certain aspects of Far Eastern problems has paid few dividends; the catering to Nehru has brought considerable disillusionment; and the failure to solve the Iranian and Egyptian problems has been discouraging.
- 5.
- Failure of the Government to Regain Lost Popularity. The polls on public opinion last spring indicated a decided swing to the Conservatives. It is likely that Mr. Attlee believed that in the early autumn this opinion might have changed to a more favorable attitude to his party, but this has not occurred and public opinion is about the same as it was in May. Mr. Attlee cannot anticipate any increase in the Government’s popularity in the coming winter when shortages will be more evident and the cost of living will rise further as the rearmament program gets into full operation. In other words, losses now may be estimated at less than they would be some months hence. Furthermore, because of probable attrition through by-elections Labor could not hope to remain in office until 1955.
All in all the story adds up to the point that Mr. Attlee and his associates are tired and rather disillusioned and that they feel that they cannot struggle any longer against the feelings of the majority. There are difficult decisions ahead. Unless there are some radical [Page 975] changes in the world picture, the British Government will have to face issues of great magnitude on questions of foreign policy, rearmament and finance. Perhaps Mr. Attlee may have felt it wiser to let the Conservatives take these unpleasant, unpopular decisions. The Labor Party seems willing to give up office at the present time with the odds against them in reelection but with the hope that they will come back to office in the not too far distant future following the failure of the Conservatives to solve the present world-wide problems which they would inherit from Mr. Attlee’s Government.
- Copies also sent to Webb, Matthews, Hickerson, Rusk, McGhee, Barrett, Thorp, Cabot, and Nitze.↩