740.5 MAP/6–2551

The Director of International Security Affairs (Cabot) to the Secretary of Defense (Marshall)

top secret

My Dear Mr. Secretary: As you know, the various agencies represented on the International Security Affairs Committee have been engaged over the past several weeks in an intensive analysis of the problems of meeting the North Atlantic Treaty Medium Term Defense Plan, estimating its total cost, appraising its economic feasibility, and exploring how the total burden might be divided between the United States and the other member countries.

As agreed at an informal meeting of Generals Marshall and Bradley and Messrs. Foley, Lawton, Bissell and others with Secretary Acheson in his office on June 21,1 the Economic Cooperation Administration has now prepared an analysis from the economic point of view of the allocation of forces to meet the Medium Term Defense Plan “Gap” as proposed by the Joint Chiefs of Staff in a memorandum of May 28, 1951, to the Secretary of Defense.2 The analysis is contained in ISAC [Page 206] D–4/8,3 which is attached hereto. Time limitations have made it impossible for the body of this paper to be reviewed in detail by all the agencies of the International Security Affairs Committee, but no substantive objections to the summary conclusions having been registered, I transmit this economic analysis to you on behalf of the International Security Affairs Committee for consideration of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

This analysis reveals that serious economic problems result from the overall cost of the Plan and the difficulties of meeting it within generous estimates of European capabilities combined with feasible quantities of aid from the United States and Canada. This problem was analyzed in ISAC D-4/7a,4 the paper under discussion at the June 21 meeting ref erred to above.

In addition to this general problem, the country-by-country review reveals especially great economic difficulties in the cases of particular European countries. I call to your attention in particular the economic limitations suggested in ISAC D–4/8 affecting the possible increases in force for France and Italy. In addition, although data have not been available for a full analysis, such rough figures as are available suggest that the proposed assignment of additional forces to Norway might exceed that country’s manpower and other economic capabilities.

It has not been possible in the time available to include an analysis of Canadian capabilities for meeting the requirements of the “GAP”.

It is the view of the International Security Affairs Committee that this economic analysis should be carefully reviewed by the Joint Chiefs of Staff to determine what modifications may be desirable in the country-by-country allocation of forces to fill the “Gap” as contained in the Joint Chiefs of Staff memorandum of May 28.

In addition, the International Security Affairs Committee considers it extremely desirable, in view both of the country-by-country analysis and of the general analysis contained in ISAC D-4/7a, that in presenting a proposal on behalf of the United States to the Standing Group, the United States Representative make it clear that the proposal represents an initial United States position based essentially on military considerations, and in arriving at its final position, the United States will take into account the positions and problems of the other member countries and the analysis through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization of the economic and political, as well as the military considerations involved.

Finally, in accordance with ISAC D–4/7a, the International Security Affairs Committee recommends that in presenting further proposals [Page 207] on the Medium Term Defense Plan in the various North Atlantic Treaty Organization agencies, including the Standing Group, the United States Representatives should make clear that the preliminary United States appraisal of total costs indicates serious economic and production difficulties which will require intensive collective efforts to overcome; and that the United States desires to work out with its Allies an effective solution during the summer of 1951.

The further development of a firm United States position on the distribution of forces to fill the “Gap”, and on the distribution of the production, financial and economic burdens of the entire Medium Term Defense Plan will be the subject of continuing work by the International Security Affairs Committee agencies and by the International Security Affairs Committee itself, in order to provide guidance to United States representatives in all the North Atlantic Treaty Organization agencies based on a consolidated political-military-economic judgment.

Very truly yours,

Thomas D. Cabot
  1. See the memorandum of conversation by Martin, p. 197.
  2. For further information concerning the part played by this JCS document of May 28, not printed, in the development of the overall study of the financing of the defense effort, see numbered paragraph 9 of telegram Todep 112. August 17, p. 252.
  3. Not printed. This document dated June 25, 1951, was entitled: “Economic Analysis of the Allocation of the MTDP Gap to European Countries,” and was prepared in ECA.
  4. Ante, p. 193.