793.001/10–250
The Deputy Under Secretary of State (Matthews) to the Special Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Foreign Military Affairs and Assistance (Burns)
My Dear General Burns: Officers of the Department have been in informal contact with your office concerning our views on the intentions of the Chinese Communist regime as interpreted by Indian observers, but I am confirming them in writing in reply to your letter of October 2, 1950.1
It is difficult to reach firm conclusions respecting the intentions of the Chinese Communists with respect to Korea and Indochina. The Department has given consideration to the various views of other governments with respect to the reports coming out of Peiping, together with all information available from other sources. In brief, the Department believes that (1) it cannot safely be assumed that the Chinese Communists in their several recent statements—public and private—were simply bluffing; (2) they possess the military capability to intervene in Korea, and Soviet and Chinese interests (that is, the interests of world Communism) in that area are such that they may have determined to do so. However, the most favorable moment for such overt intervention seems to have passed; and current estimates of Soviet global intentions and the history of outside Communist military participation in revolutionary movements in other countries alike lead to the estimate that such intervention, if it occurs, will be (a) limited in amount and (b) nominally covert instead of [Page 981] overt. This last conclusion is supported by our assumptions, based on evidence received from various sources, that the Peiping regime wishes to be admitted to the United Nations, and that the defeats suffered by the North Koreans in their aggression will logically have reduced any desire of the Chinese Communist regime to clash head-on with the armed forces of nations united within the framework of the UN.
There has been some question regarding the political sympathies and biases of the Indian Ambassador in Peiping, Mr. K. M. Panikkar, and his accuracy and objectivity as a reporter are subject to question. The Department is bringing up to date its biographic report of June 20, 1950 respecting him, copies of which were supplied the Department of Defense. I shall send you a copy of the revised report as soon as it is completed.2
While telegrams the Department has received concerning the intentions of the Chinese Communists have already been made available to you, there is attached as of possible use a summary of such reports.2
Sincerely yours,