894A.20/9–1549: Telegram
The Consul General at Taipei (Macdonald) to the Secretary of State
[Received September 15—12:56 a. m.]
476. Called on General Sun Li-jen at his request late yesterday afternoon. He expounded at length on difficulties he is encountering as commander of all ground troops Taiwan. (According to recent order, he has been placed in direct command of all combat troops on island.) Claims he is powerless as he has inadequate supplies and support and in some instances none. He is dependent on Governor Chen Cheng for all equipment. Sun stated that Chen evades issue when he requests equipment or passes buck by saying matter will be discussed at future conference or tells Sun he has no money and to get the supplies himself if he needs them. Sun says that General Chen making same mistakes he made previously and has learned nothing by past unfortunate experiences. Defenses of island appallingly inadequate, according Sun, and he has been unable to get any equipment or funds from Chen Cheng to improve situation and was told by Chen that there is plenty of time but Sun says time running short. Sun naturally discouraged and frustrated but is determined to try and reorganize troops here and build up some sort defense. He plans to spend one-third his time in Taipei in connection his duties commander of ground forces and two-thirds time at training center as he considers training troops now here most important job.
In reply my query as to likelihood of Communist attack Taiwan and possibilities of success, he replied he considers 50–50 chance attack following fall Canton since Communists must either make Chungking or Taiwan next objective and Taiwan is of greater strategic importance for several reasons. He estimates chances of success good. In first place island has practically no defenses and out of approximately 300,000 troops now on island, not over 60,000 at most are combat troops and Communists, according Sun, could land 200,000 troops within 24 hours [Page 391] easily. These troops could be transported in large fishing junks equipped with sails and motors and are capable of carrying 200 men each with equipment. He said Communists can assemble 1,000 junks without trouble.
In view of this threat of invasion he fails to understand why General Chen Cheng takes such an unrealistic view of situation, saying there is plenty of time. Sun attributes many of former defeats on mainland to attitude that there was plenty of time.
Sun expects fall of Canton before October 10 and thinks that present lull on that front has been due to Communist reorganizing and improving lines of communication in preparation for final blow.