893.00/10–2849: Telegram
The Vice Consul at Kunming (Lutkins) to the Secretary of State
[Received October 29—4:02 a. m.]
209. In interview yesterday Lu Han38 expressed opinion that Communists will push into Kwangsi soonest in effort to knock out Pai and end war. He was pessimistic as to possibility of effective resistance by Pai whom he described as outnumbered at least two to one and lacking in funds; thought Pai would retreat into southeast Yunnan. He did not expect major fighting in north Szechwan due approach winter; Kweichow defences very weak but no Communist thrust expected there in near future.
Governor stated Communists would not be halted by mountainous terrain southwest like Japs due apathy people who do not regard them as invaders. Painted black picture in view continued Generalissimo–Li split and Nationalist lack of funds and troops, estimated resistance could be maintained in West China for 6 months.
Lu bitterly critical Generalissimo whose stupidity, stubbornness and selfishness he blamed for Nationalists’ debacle. Thought situation not completely lost as disillusionment and war weariness widespread among civilians and troops in Communist areas and one major reverse could turn tide. He believed even small scale US aid, such as recently appropriated 75 million dollars, would effectively stop Communists and give time to prepare counterattack but only on two conditions: One, that a US military mission strictly control and supervise its uses; two, that it not be scattered among various areas and leaders but be used entirely in Kwangsi region. If no such aid forthcoming, he said, everything would be over in few months.
Governor claimed there was continuing evidence of contact and cooperation between Yunnanese and Indochinese and Burmese Communists. Though [Thought?] it a certainty that once resistance in China crushed, Communists would furnish arms, advisers and manpower to Communists in southeast Asia. Considered it a mistake to count on development Chinese Titoism39 in foreseeable future because of strong hold Soviets appear to have over Mao, Chou, etc.
Sent OffEmb Chungking 78; repeated Department 209, Department pass Chungking.