893.00/9–2049: Telegram
The Chargé in China (Strong) to the Secretary of State
[Received September 21—2:52 p. m.]
Cantel 1129. Foreign diplomats and correspondents Canton now talking in terms of minimum 2–months’ additional lease on life that city and possibility much longer period. They believe gloom still exists on front despite official talk of large Communist offensive and feel minor Communist penetration not of serious importance. Possibility of local turnover now disregarded completely, [garble] theory that Communists sweep along coast through Amoy and Swatow might force withdrawal of forces north of Canton. This route thought to [Page 530] present too many natural difficulties even if Nationalist opposition only light.
Embassy comment: Although situation north of Canton has hopeful elements, it can be changed in few weeks if Communists succeed in splitting Nationalist defenders. Also must not overlook possibility that direct Generalissimo pressure on his loyal subordinates north of China [Canton?], probably to be exerted in person following his return to Canton, may result in turning existing coordination between Pai’s forces on left and Generalissimo’s forces on right. As yet Pai and President Li have little in way of tangible reward to offer these other commanders for continuing cooperation against Generalissimo’s orders and pressure. We can readily believe President Li’s statement that Generalissimo willing go any lengths prevent Pai Chung-hsi from becoming hero. (Cantel 1113, September 15 [16], repeated Taipei 168, Hong Kong unnumbered; Cantel 1114, September 1637 and Hong Kong telegram 709, September 17, repeated Shanghai 250).
Embassy’s own estimate is minimum of 6 weeks; factors which would lead to estimate of longer life for Canton not yet determined.
Sent Department Cantel 1129; repeated Taipei 170; Shanghai 540; by hand Hong Kong.