893.20/3–1849
Memorandum by the Director of the Office of Far Eastern Affairs (Butterworth) to the Secretary of State
Chinese Communist Military Timetable
The Military Attaché at Nanking27 has submitted an estimate of the military situation in a telegram dated March 9,28 the substance of which follows:
This estimate is based on the assumption that peace negotiations will fail. Within 30 days thereafter, but not before May 30, the [Page 188] Communists will cross the Yangtze in the vicinity of Nanking, with Hangchow and Shanghai falling shortly thereafter, and in the vicinity of Hankow from whence they will push up the river to Chungking. These objectives can all be accomplished in four months.
The second phase will begin about November 1 with a two-pronged drive on Canton via the Canton-Hankow railroad and via the coastal provinces. This operation will be completed by the end of the year and will fulfill Mao’s statement that the civil war would be won in a year.