893.00/1–749
Memorandum by the Director of the Office of Far
Eastern Affairs (Butterworth) to the Acting Secretary of State
[Washington,] January 7, 1949.
Military Situation in China
The deterioration of the Chinese Nationalist military forces which began
with the first phases of the Communist autumn offensive in Shantung and
Manchuria has continued unabated with the shift in Communist military
effort to north and central China.
Since the beginning of the battle for north and central China in
November, the National Government has lost approximately 86,000 troops
in north China, 230,000 in central China, and has an additional 100,000
besieged and written off southwest of Hsuchow.
Generally speaking, Nationalist units are surrounded, isolated, or so
badly weakened that they can do little more than temporarily delay
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the winning of any Communist
military objective. The Communists enjoy a marked numerical superiority
in both north and central China.
A tabulation of the manpower losses sustained by Nationalist forces and
their present strength and disposition is attached.
[Annex]
Status of Regular Chinese Nationalist Forces as
of December 31, 1948
A. Estimate of losses since the beginning of the
battle for Hsuchow on November 9, 1948:
| Central China—the most capable of the regular units in
the area. |
230,000 |
| North China—units of General Fu Tso-yi’s
command. |
86,000 |
| Total losses |
316,000 |
B. Estimate of strength remaining:
Central China—
| 1. |
Nanking–Shanghai Defense Area, including 5 inferior armies
north of the Yangtze and 9 armies deployed along the
Yangtze. |
150,000 |
| 2. |
General Tu Yu-ming’s army groups isolated and written off
southwest of Hsuchow. |
100,000 |
| 3. |
General Pai Chung-hsi’s troops in Hupeh. |
50,000 |
|
Total in Central China |
300,000 |
North China—
| 1. |
General Fu Tso-yi’s command isolated in a number of cities
along the Tientsin–Peiping–Suiyuan railroad. |
286,000 |
| 2. |
General Yen Hsi-shan’s troops encircled at Taiyuan with
sufficient equipment but with food shortages. |
120,800 |
| 3. |
Tsingtao forces isolated and incapable of effective
offensive action. |
51,900 |
| 4. |
Sian Area—inferior troops incapable of affecting the
course of operations in north or central China. |
176,000 |
|
Total in North China |
634,700 |
| B[C]. |
Estimated total strength remaining in all the war areas of
China: |
934,700 |
