501.BB palestine/8–1649: circular telegram
The Secretary of State to Certain Diplomatic and Consular Offices 1
Reference current developments relating gen Palestine question, Dept analyzes present situation as fol:
- 1)
- PCC: Hope for real progress at second phase Lausanne talks beginning July 18 has not been realized. Although both sides wld welcome peace, neither side is prepared at this time to make concessions which wld make settlement possible. Israeli offers re Gaza strip or repatriation 100,000 Arab refugees are unacceptable to Arabs. Arab position which is based on rigid adherence to para 11 of GA res Dec 11 and May 12 protocol with its map indicating 1947 partition boundaries is unacceptable to Israelis. No real basis for conciliation therefore appears possible at Lausanne.
- 2)
- GA: GA will discuss Jlem and refugee questions during forthcoming session and will probably discuss other aspects Palestine question including boundaries in connection with these items or as separate item on agenda. Israelis wish to avoid GA debate, Arabs look forward to it.
- 3)
- Israel: Israel is concerned with domestic problems and has allowed public opinion to develop within Israel to such an extent that it is almost impossible for Israeli Govt to make substantial concessions re refugees and territory which wld open way to settlement and friendly relations with Arabs. Israel prefers instead to maintain status quo in Palestine. Objectives seem to be (1) Absorption of almost all Palestinian refugees by Arab States and (2) de facto recognition of armistice lines as boundaries.
- 4)
- Arab States: Arab states are also concerned with domestic problems and are reluctant to take any forthright action for time being. Basically Arabs believe agreement with Israel at Lausanne wld require new concessions or at minimum formal acquiescence in status quo re refugees and territory. Arab reps consider agreement on either basis politically impossible for them because of polit repercussions which might result at home. Status quo is therefore preferable pending GA.
- 5)
- Refugees: Israel is willing to contribute to limited extent. Arabs privately agree that it will probably not be possible for most refugees to return to Israel and that it will be necessary to resettle them in Arab territory, primarily Syria, Jordan and Central Palestine. Arabs will not, however, take this position publicly. Although Arabs realize UNRPR funds are rapidly being depleted, necessity for early solution to overall refugee question has not resulted in constructive action on part of Arabs possibly because Arabs fatalistically anticipate UN particularly US and UK will assume responsibility at last moment.
- 6)
- Economic Survey Mission: Proposed mission is still under urgent consideration in Dept. Implementation has been delayed pending determination re personnel in Washington and in Lausanne pending clarification of Israeli and Arab positions. Dept expects, however, to be ready to proceed with Economic Survey Mission shortly.
In view foregoing analysis, Dept considers that most effective approach to Palestine settlement at present time wld be on basis of econ report by Economic Survey Mission rather than on polit agreement at Lausanne. Dept does not rule out possibility of further concessions by Arabs and Israelis and some measure of agreement between them under auspices of PCC but considers major emphasis shld be shifted to Economic Survey Mission. It is contemplated Economic Survey Mission might briefly visit NE, study existing data, consult interested govts and authorities and on this basis report its recommendations for econ development and settlement of refugee question to GA through PCC.
Economic Survey Mission wld report, for example, which NE countries wld be able to absorb refugees and to what extent in each case under present circumstances. Economic Survey Mission wld also report whether internatl econ and financial aid wld be required and to what extent such aid wld assist NE countries in recovering from dislocations arising from recent conflict and wld increase their ability to absorb refugees. Report and recommendations of Economic Survey Mission wld cover all possible aspects of Palestine question on econ grounds.
Dept has been contemplating instructing AmReps at Damascus, Amman and Tel Aviv to request FonOff for assurances that Govt wld cooperate with Economic Survey Mission in supplying info and wld give great weight to recommendations of Econ Survey Mission. AmReps at Beirut, Baghdad, Jidda and Cairo wld also be informed but primarily for purpose of requesting cooperation of respective govts as it is doubted resettlement of refugees wld prove feasible except for token numbers in these countries. It wld be pointed out that advance assurances were essential to justify estab of mission and to indicate serious consideration which respective govts wld be willing to give its recommendations. It wld also be pointed out that in absence of such assurances or other constructive action by Israel and Arab states long-range refugee resettlement and even short-range refugee relief wld undoubtedly be delayed.
Dept considers, however, that it wld be inappropriate to approach FonOff re Economic Survey Mission for several days in view Zaim overthrow and probable Arab preoccupation with this matter. Meanwhile your comments re analysis and shift of emphasis to Economic Survey Mission are requested.
- At London, Paris/Ankara, Arab capitals, Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Lausanne.↩