867N.48/6–1449
The Secretary of Defense (Johnson) to the Secretary of State
My Dear Mr. Secretary: In reply to your letter of May 4, 1949, concerning the probable effects of the Arab refugee problem upon our military and strategic interests in the Near East, the views of the Joint Chiefs of Staff have been obtained and I wish to give you the position of the National Military Establishment on this matter.
The primary significance for the Military Establishment of the Arab refugee problem lies in the strategic importance of the Middle East to the U.S. and its security interests. This area is important not only from the point of view of actual military operations, but for its valuable petroleum resources which may be essential to the conduct of a future war. As the Joint Chiefs of Staff have frequently indicated, either unfriendly control of that area or the failure of the United States to retain the orientation of the area toward the West could, in the event of a global war, have profound effect upon the course of such a war.
It follows that all reasonable political and economic effort toward the maintenance and improvement of friendly relations with the nations of the Middle East is justified. It follows, further, that our policy logically should extend to strengthening of the Arab States so that their friendliness in war emergency may be useful.
The present refugee situation as pointed out in your letter will, unless rectified, serve to perpetuate and aggravate conditions of insecurity, unrest, and political instability, with attendant opportunity for Soviet penetration. In addition, constructive United States assistance with respect to refugees would be an asset with respect to maintenance and improvement of friendly relations with the Arab States, while the withholding of such assistance would add to the trend toward Arab embitterment.
In connection with this matter I should like to refer you to a recent intelligence estimate prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency (Intelligence Memorandum No. 180, a copy of which is attached1). In this memorandum, the CIA points out the serious risks inherent in the continuation of the present situations. These risks, insofar as they affect U.S. security, cause us serious concern.
The refugee problem, if unresolved, may not have specific, direct effect upon present U.S. military (as distinguished from strategic) interests in the Middle East area. The refugee problem can, however, have very serious repercussions on our strategic interests because those [Page 1135] interests are bound to suffer unless the stability and friendship of the Middle East area are maintained and unless conditions there are sufficiently improved to permit Israeli and Arab reconciliation, at least to the extent that the area as a whole might reasonably be expected to resist Soviet penetration and to act in concert to oppose Soviet aggression.
We have offered no proposals for the solution of this very serious problem, but we stand ready to cooperate with you in taking appropriate steps to do so. We agree fully, however, with the tenor of your letter. We believe that a satisfactory long-term solution for security in that area and the earliest resolution of this and other major differences between Israel and the neighboring Arab States will pay important dividends in terms of our national security.2
Sincerely yours,