Foreign Relations of the United States, 1949, The Near East, South Asia, and Africa, Volume VI

868.00/12–1849: Telegram

The Ambassador in the Soviet Union (Kirk) to the Secretary of State

secret

Moscow, December 18, 1949—1 p. m.

3134. While agreeing with conclusion enclosure Department instructions 134, November 16¹ that Greek Communist guerrillas have been rendered ineffective as striking force for present, Embassy inclined place considerable emphasis on provisional character this situation and to caution against understandable tendency to consider current Soviet tactical lull as justifying appreciable reduction in total level US assistance to Greece (Grady–McGhee talks as reported Istanbul’s 275, November 30 to Department and Depintel December 12² re Anglo-American and NME planning Greek military forces).

Embassy thinking influenced by obviously close link between Tito problem and recent Greek guerrilla defeats (Embtel 3062, December 9³) and also by conviction that as long as Greek rebel forces of 10,000 capable of military service are in satellite or Soviet territory (Department instructions 134) and at disposal Soviet power, they constitute latent military threat which Soviets can always reorganize rapidly for action inside Greek borders.

Aside from military factors, including strategic importance Greece in any Soviet thrust to eastern Mediterranean area, Embassy concerned with possible harmful effect on politico-economic health of Greece of any appreciable decrease US aid this time. This connection Embassy suggests that Greek agricultural problem appropriate sphere of long-term US action under Point Four technical assistance program.

It would appear preferable to utilize relative calm of what may be short breathing spell from direct Communist military threat to push vigorously to completion projected programs for strengthening Greek economy and administration services. Otherwise, we run risk of having to answer another Greek fire-alarm on emergency basis.

Sent Department 3134. Department pass London 342, Athens 94.

Kirk

1. Not printed; it transmitted a copy of Department of State, Office of Intelligence Research Report No. 5073, October 26, 1949, entitled “Estimate of Greek Guerrilla Strength and Disposition Outside Greece,” not printed. The report concluded that the Greek Communist rebels had been rendered ineffective as a striking force as a result of the Vitsi–Grammos defeat of August-September. Sporadic rebel incursions into Greece from Albania and Bulgaria might be expected, but the Cominform would have to devise a new plan for the domination of Greece. (868.00/11–1649)
2. Not printed; it reported that the British Embassy had informed the Department of State that the British Chiefs of Staff would soon approach the National Military Establishment regarding long-range plans for the size and support of Greek military forces, long-range US–UK strategic objectives in Greece, and possible integration of the US and UK military missions in Greece (800.00 Summaries/12–1249).
3. In it the Embassy in Moscow presented a year-end appraisal of Soviet policies and attitudes towards Europe. For the text of the telegram, see vol. v, p. 681.