781.00/4–649
The Chargé in the Soviet Union (Kohler) to the Secretary of State
No. 202
Sir: I have the honor to refer to the Embassy’s despatch no. 315 dated April 1, 19481 and telegrams 3008 dated December 23, 1948,2 and 848 dated April 6, 1949,3 and to enclose a report entitled “Soviet Intentions”, prepared by the Joint Intelligence Committee with the assistance of specialists in the various sections of the Embassy, including consultation with the Military, Naval and Air Attaches, who concur in its findings.
The Department will note that whereas the committee concluded on April 1, 1948 that the Soviet Union would “not deliberately resort to military action in the immediate future”, its conclusion this year has been even more positive, i.e.
“The Soviet Union will not resort to direct military action against the West in the near future and expects and counts on a period of several years of peace.”
This conclusion has been reached after analysis of basic factors in the Soviet situation: political, military, economic, morale and propaganda.
It is recognized that the data available to the Embassy are limited and that in Washington it should be possible to supplement the material presented here, particularly with regard to the political, economic and military factors outside the Soviet Union affecting the basic question.
It is requested that copies of this report be transmitted to the Departments of National Defense, the Army, Navy and Air, and to the Central Intelligence Agency. It is also requested that a copy be made available to General W. Bedell Smith,4 who served as Ambassador here during most of the period covered by this report.
Respectfully yours,
- Foreign Relations, 1948, vol. i, Part 2, p. 550.↩
- Ibid., vol. iv, p. 943.↩
- Not printed. The telegram gave notice to the Department that this basic despatch, giving a comprehensive review of Soviet intentions, was being sent by pouch on this day.↩
- Lt. Gen. Walter Bedell Smith was Ambassador to the Soviet Union in 1946–1949.↩