Foreign Relations of the United States, 1949, Eastern Europe; The Soviet Union, Volume V

761.00/1–2849: Telegram

The Chargé in the Soviet Union (Kohler) to the Secretary of State

secret

Moscow, January 28, 1949—6 p. m.

222. Embassy believes Chinese collapse¹ signals urgency general review US foreign policy Asia already suggested Ambassador New Delhi² (Department circular airgram January 11, 8:25 a. m.³). Such review obviously dependent on continuing study pattern Soviet policy Far East and Southeast Asia as indicated Department circular instruction October 13.⁴

Events seem support Embassy’s opinion that Soviet-CCP planning directed toward China as whole (Embtel 1214, June 30⁵) and we therefore think it unlikely Soviets can or will attempt in near future wean peripheral areas or Manchuria from direct CCP control. Even if they so desired, strength, prestige and brilliant success CCP would make such action impracticable.

Consequently whether they like it or not Soviets face CCP dominated China and Embassy believes Tito example will compel them all costs strive avoid rift with Mao.⁶ Therefore we may expect contend for reasonable future Soviet-supported Communist China.

From this arises question defense remainder Far East from further Communist domination. As most likely bases this defense, Japan and India suggest themselves. While Japan’s strategic importance to US self-evident, its record Asia eliminates it from position leadership for many years to come. Our efforts strengthen Japan have already created apprehension which would be acutely intensified should we base our entire Far East policy on Japan.

India lacks many qualifications for leadership but personality Nehru⁷ and appeal to Asiatics of Indian independence achievement cannot be discounted. Pan-Asianism is powerful force of which Soviets fully conscious and which they would like exploit to full; however, they do not like blocs which they cannot control. Apparently sober accomplishments New Delhi conference and Soviet adverse reaction (Embtel 175, January 24⁴) show Kremlin did not win this round. Crystalization force in Asia around India presents us opportunity it would be tragic to miss.

Embassy acutely aware complexity problems involved our active assistance any kind regional Asiatic grouping such as one led by India, particularly as regards ERP and our relations European colonial powers. Nevertheless, risk Communist domination all Asia must be weighted against risk disagreements west European friends having colonial interests there.

Asiatic regional group can consolidate west [east?] against west, colored against white. It could succumb to Communism, but it could save Asia. Dangers too grave and opportunity too great to ignore. With its political heritage and strength, US only nation able inspire Asiatics toward course away from Communism. While Embassy does not feel competent propose detailed course action, we believe positive dramatic step called for backed by long-range constructive program. If we make known our understanding and political support Asiatic movement directed away from dangers noted above, combined with economic technical assistance to Far East under President’s program aid under-developed areas, we shall have taken one step toward preventing catastrophe of China from becoming catastrophe all Asia.

Sent Department 222; repeated Nanking 18, New Delhi 4.

Kohler

1. For documentation on the situation in China, see volumes viii and ix .
2. Loy W. Henderson.
3. Not printed.
4. Not printed.
5. Foreign Relations, 1948, vol. vii, p. 326.
6. Mao Tse-tung was Chairman of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and from October 1, 1949, Chairman of the Government of the People’s Republic of China.
7. Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru was Prime Minister of the Government of India.
4. Not printed.