893.00/11–1048: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State 65
[Received November 10—10:39 a. m.]
2163. We are reliably informed that Generalissimo has expressed intention continue fight against Communists as long as he remains alive. He expresses confidence in his ultimate victory and insists that present military situation not beyond repair and that Hsuchou garrison will check further Communist advance toward Yangtze. Similar confidence expressed today by Cheng Kai-min66 to Military Attaché and same views have been indicated to us by others closest to Generalissimo.
This confidence in victory and desire to fight is not shared by any except those who by long and close association with Generalissimo could not survive under Communist-dominated government, and their confidence is not deep. It is true that there are some officials who believe Government armies can temporarily hold defense line along Yangtze and Huai rivers and that American intervention will allow Government to build base in South China wherein Government will be secure and from which Government can reconquer north. Those holding this view count on American intervention and are encouraged in this delusion by Generalissimo, as reported Embtel 2075, November 367 and Embtel 2116, November 6.68 Subject matter of latter was given United Press by Foreign Office press officer and published November 7, and stories indicating immediate increase of American aid are regularly appearing in Government-controlled vernacular press.
Bulk of populace and virtually all officials except Generalissimo and immediate entourage appear to hold views contrary to above, are resigned to early Communist victory, and believe that immediate [Page 559] cessation hostilities would be in best interest of all concerned. In past week Chang Chih-chung69 telegraphed Generalissimo advising peaceful solution present conflict. Generalissimo summoned him Nanking and since arrival, presumably with Generalissimo’s knowledge, Chang has conferred with Soviet Ambassador,70 seeking means to peaceful solution. He has indicated that results conversations not altogether satisfactory but that they will continue. Liu Chih, Vice President of Control Yuan, has held similar talks with Soviet Embassy. Vice President Li Tsung-jen also advocates cessation hostilities and states Generalissimo is sole stumbling block negotiated settlement. So far as we are aware, peace group has no plans forcing their views on Generalissimo, and it is likely that they are at least partially deterred in this by reiterated propaganda of resistance group that American intervention will yet save the day.
In general, stalemate in Government now obtains, with most officials seemingly paralyzed and incapable action. For example, local military commanders are hesitant approach Generalissimo for purpose concrete planning defense Nanking and they fear to consult him to plan for flight of Government. Also, whether still hopeful of American intervention, fearful of Generalissimo’s wrath or from some other motivation, none of more important proponents of peace move appear able or willing translate their desire for peace into effective political action. Meanwhile, apprehension mounts within city. Some ranking officials, among whom is Minister National Defense,71 are making individual preparations for flight to Canton or elsewhere. Refugees from Pengpu are pouring into city with rumors Communists are attacking that city. Communist currency today quoted on black market, and on north bank of river is preferred to gold yuan.
In this situation, we believe crux of matter is whether there will be orderly transfer of power from present to successor government. Those favoring peace apparently have no means making views prevail except by some such method [as] replacement Generalissimo through coup, for there does not appear any likelihood that he will give up struggle of own accord. On contrary, he is, in his present temper, much more likely to attempt defend his capital, and, as battle finally goes against him, to commit suicide. Thus, there appears little likelihood of formation temporary caretaker government comprised of persons able and willing to negotiate with Communists. Should present Government end in death or unplanned and disorderly flight of Generalissimo and his entourage, there is every prospect of breakdown of authority in that part of country still under Nationalist control, with attendant high incidence of civil disorder. Under these conditions, [Page 560] whatever military resistance is still maintained will be sporadic, generally ineffective and will entail grave dangers to foreign population and additional distress and suffering to Chinese people.
- Summary of telegram transmitted to the White House on November 11 for President Truman at Key West, Florida.↩
- Chinese Deputy Minister of National Defense.↩
- Not printed.↩
- Vol. viii , “U.S. Military Assistance to China” (Ch. II).↩
- Military and Political Affairs Director for the Northwest.↩
- N. V. Roschin.↩
- Gen. Ho Ying-chin.↩