893.00/5–148
The Minister-Counselor of Embassy in China (Clark) to the Director of the Office of Far Eastern Affairs (Butterworth)
Dear Walt: Whatever the ultimate result of the recent session of the National Assembly and the elections of the first President and Vice President under the Constitution, it seems to me that two phenomena were made clear: Firstly, the Gimo, by masterful political strategy, coupled, I believe, with at least a certain amount of sincerity, refused to be a candidate for the Presidency, with the result that he finds himself elected to that office with confirmed authority, albeit somewhat battered by the fray. He succeeded in establishing his in-dispensability at this stage, even though his policies have been repudiated, and in demonstrating that he, and he alone, can hold together the present governmental structure based, as it is, on the support of more or less independent Generals, with their more or less personal armies, who are restrained from declaring their complete regional autonomy by self-interest, of course, but also largely by their loyalty to the Generalissimo. Should he disappear from the scene at this time, they would inevitably revert, I believe, to the regionalism that existed prior to the march north of the Kuominchun and we would see an era of sauve qui peut.
Secondly, the liberals, or the reformers, or whatever you wish to call them—those who were rapidly becoming desperate in their desire to bring new life into a government that was slowly, but surely, committing suicide—were able to demonstrate and make effective their strength by rallying behind Li Tsung-jen, who has emerged, whether he is qualified or not, as the great reformer, and elected him Vice President despite the most violent efforts of an efficient CC Clique machine, supported by an irate, but arrogant and not too adept Generalissimo. The reactionary, who agreed to a secret ballot in that election, will now rue the day he did so. I am told that when Li Tsung-jen’s strength became evident, the Generalissimo called Chen Li-fu on the mat and there were heated words as to why Chen had [Page 217] not been able to control the vote as he had promised. Maybe now Chen will once more, as he has in the past, express a desire to visit the U. S. to study “democratic institutions”!
Our interest during the past few weeks has, of course, been largely centered on these meetings of the National Assembly. Its activities have had pride of place in the press and have formed the topic of conversation everywhere. Even the shopkeeper, avid for his gain, kept one ear on the radio, while the other was listening to his customer. Also, wherever there was a loud-speaker on the streets of Nanking, crowds could be found listening to the results.
Going back a little bit, our information indicates that in the elections to the National Assembly and to the new Legislative Yuan, as well as during the first meetings of the Assembly, it was evident that the party bosses of the Kmt regarded the establishment of constitutional government as an exercise in machine politics. It was obviously their intention to use the party machine and the prestige of the Generalissimo to control the new Government as they had the old, and they were prepared to use whatever means were necessary to accomplish this end. They were aghast, therefore, when the Generalissimo, without, I believe, real prior consultation with his supporters, announced his intention not to stand for President. It was the decision he had made in Kuling over the Chinese New Year and which had been long and expectedly awaited although no one, I believe, had previous knowledge of the nature of the decision he had made. To the party machine, the Generalissimo was an indispensable man. He had helped create and had protected the machine and since he ruled through it, it was indispensable to him as well. The Whampoa Generals, the Paoting Generals, and the Generals of no Clique whatsoever, including the Mohammedan Generals of the West, all of whom care little for the Nationalist Government, insisted that if he left the Ship of State, so would they. This situation cannot have been unknown to Generalissimo, and it is for this reason, even though we do not question his sincerity, that we credit him with a masterful political tactic when he refused to stand for President. Having let himself be persuaded, which, if our assumption is correct, was not a difficult task, that he was indispensable to the country, the circumstances of his past forced him once again to strive to bring the party machine with him in full power into the new Government, to exclude its opponents, and to amend the Constitution so as to make the new Government susceptible to his personal control as had been that Government which was passing. Through an amendment to the Constitution, he obtained the full powers necessary to maintain his personal control and he sought continued power for the party machine through his support of Sun Fo for the Vice Presidency, with every indication [Page 218] that the party machine would find some way to see that Sun Fo remained also as the elected President of the Legislative Yuan.
The machine had rigged the elections to the National Assembly and had thus retained an almost solid bloc of delegates which could be strictly controlled, and which included politically experienced individuals well able to stir the Assembly and to control its deliberations. Also, it had at its disposal a disciplined corps of political workers skilled in such minor political arts as bribery and intimidation. It had a controlled press, which could be counted on not to expose its more flagrant violations of the amenities of democratic procedure and it had at its service, at least so most delegates thought, the secret police. Finally, through its affiliation with the Whampoa Generals, an affiliation so close as to make them, to all intents and purposes, a part of the machine, it had with it the bulk of the Army High Command.
Thus, the party machine was an organized political force of no little magnitude. Yet it was committed in support of reactionary principles, which had been implicitly, if not openly and explicitly, rejected by the rank and file of the Kmt, and by independent individuals and groups within Nationalist China. These principles involved essentially the perpetuation of the personal autocratic rule of the Generalissimo and his closest followers.
The opponents in the Kmt of this reactionary leadership had, and still have, no cohesive organization. Such union as is found among them is based on their common dissatisfaction with the Government’s lack of concrete achievement, on their well-grounded fear that the Government, as at present constituted, cannot prevent the further spread of Communism, and on their belief in democracy and in constitutional government. A benevolent despotism had remained despotic while ceasing to be benevolent. The community of interest and views among opponents of the party machine would not, in the ordinary course of events, suffice to move them to united action, yet the flagrant intervention of the machine in the elections and the all too obvious intervention of the machine and of the Generalissimo in the deliberations of the Assembly and in the Assembly’s Vice Presidential elections, moved most delegates to consider ways and means of protecting their interest and of representing their constituents.
As a result, revolt against party solidarity developed. The clash came to a head in the Vice Presidential elections. Independent delegates had shown disgruntlement when the party machine, during the meetings of the Assembly, had successfully prevented free debate of the shortcomings of the Government, and they felt further frustration when the Generalissimo and the party machine intervened, all too openly, to prevent the election of Li Tsung-jen. (We are told on [Page 219] good authority that the Generalissimo called in Li Tsung-jen and demanded his withdrawal and that at one stage he offered Ch’eng Ch’ien, who was running third, complete reimbursement for all his campaign expenses if he would withdraw in favor of Sun Fo.) The frustration of these independent delegates and of the disgruntled members of the Kmt coalesced in support of Li Tsung-jen as the one who had campaigned for reform.
Aroused by this evidence of mounting dissatisfaction and organized opposition, the Kmt machine threw all its resources into the battle, vilifying Li and intimidating his supporters. These tactics aroused violent resentment and Li, in a masterful manoeuvre, announced his withdrawal from the race in order to demonstrate clearly the nature and source of the attacks to which he and his supporters were being subjected. There is evidence that his withdrawal was concerted with that of Ch’eng Ch’ien. As was anticipated, Li’s move, supported by that of Ch’eng Ch’ien, gained the sympathy of the general public and of those delegates to the National Assembly not under strict machine control. Blame for the situation was increasingly placed on the Generalissimo, and since Ch’eng Ch’ien, the only other non-machine candidate remaining in the race, had withdrawn in sympathy with Li, the Generalissimo was forced to direct Sun Fo to withdraw his candidacy as well. Also, in order to persuade Li and Ch’eng to re-enter the race, the Gimo was compelled to give absolute assurances, both private as well as public, that the Vice Presidential race would henceforth be free and without party duress, each member of the National Assembly being allowed to vote as his conscience dictated. Incidentally, to make sure the Generalissimo didn’t go back on his promises, the Assembly delegates took elaborate precautions to see that the vote was not only secret, but that the ballots were also accurately counted. The result of all this, as is known to you, was the election of Li Tsung-jen as Vice President by 143 votes (1438 to 1295), or, in other words, a photo finish.
It remains to be seen whether the emergence of Li Tsung-jen, as what might be called leader of a reform group, can be confirmed. Those who supported him are of divergent views, and of his qualities as a political leader, we know little, though he shows promise. We can only hope that these stirrings of democracy which were so evident in the Vice Presidential election may grow into legitimate and effective opposition to the reactionary elements in the Government. What existed as opposition to the Generalissimo and to the Kmt party machine was, in essence, we believe, a demand for change and reform which had not yet become an organized political force. Having shown sufficient strength to elect Li Tsung-jen as Vice President in spite of the strenuous efforts of the CC Clique, backed by the Generalissimo, [Page 220] the reformers now have a spokesman, and their chosen leader can speak with authority if he plays his cards well. Nevertheless, the Generalissimo and the machine control the key posts in the Government, and how they will accommodate themselves to the pressure for change remains to be seen. We can only hope that the liberal elements which have thus expressed themselves will be able to assert strength toward reform within the Government and within the country sufficient to give some hope that the present onsweep of Communist expansion may be checked and some day reversed.
In the meantime the lull in military activities does not warrant, we believe, any confidence in the ability of the Government at the moment to checkmate any Communist move which Communist strategy may dictate. The Generalissimo announced on New Year’s that the Communists would be of no military importance between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers in six months. Yet months have gone by and we see little sign of action to accomplishing that end. Weihsien in Shantung, the first walled city to go by frontal attack supported by heavy artillery, is only one more example of the incapability of the National leadership to direct an offensive. Here, as elsewhere, the Nationalist troops encamp behind walls and wait for the Communists to come pick them off. Present indications are that the Communists may by-pass Mukden, and strike toward Chinhuangtao. Yet we see no real activity to counter this move. Fu Tso-yi in Peiping, as has Wang Yao-wu in Shantung, is showing increasing tendencies toward independence, and we find it difficult to believe that he will remain in that area under serious Communist threat. We are watching the situation closely in hope that we can give Americans in that area sufficient advance warning should we become convinced that Fu Tso-yi will not fight, but will withdraw toward Chahar and Suiyuan. Wang Yao-wu has already warned Americans in Shantung to seek places of safety, and the situation in Central China looks none too good. There are already creditable rumors that the Communists have penetrated south of the Yangtze and that we will be hearing in due course from new concentrations. Unless some means can be found to revive the spirit of the Nationalist troops and possibly, just barely possibly, Li Tsung-jen and his backers may be able to accomplish this, there seems little hope of effective resistance to continued expansion of the Communists where and when they will.
We have been interested in the failure of Roschin, the former Soviet Military Attaché in Nanking, who has been Soviet Ambassador Designate here, to return to Nanking. We were told the other day that he has asked for a visa and is expected here early in May. We feel that the timing of his arrival has some meaning, but as yet we have no good guess.
[Page 221]One element in the Li Tsung-jen candidacy which has worried us, has been the possibility that he might seek an accommodation with the Communists, and there is recent evidence that he may have had, and may maintain, contact with the Kmt Revolutionary Committee in Hong Kong. It is not entirely beyond the realm of possibility, therefore, that Roschin’s return to Nanking at this time may in some way be connected with developments in the National Assembly.
Very sincerely yours,