894.00B/11–948
The Acting Political Adviser in Japan (Sebald) to the Secretary of State
No. 716
[Received November 23.]
Sir: I have the honor to refer to this Mission’s despatch No. 709 of November 4, 19481 concerning Japanese reactions to the communist [Page 888] capture of Mukden. The fall of Mukden and increasing communist activity throughout the Far East have caused the Japanese to reconsider the significance of the communist movement in Japan, and special attention has been directed toward the strong communist positions in Hokkaido and Kyushu, the two extremities of postwar Japan which are closest to the Asiatic mainland.
Shortly after the communist party was revived in Japan following the surrender, communist activity in Hokkaido became particularly noteworthy. Since 1945 party membership in Hokkaido has been conspicuously high, especially in terms of the relatively small population of the island and its predominantly rural character. As of January 1948, on the basis of information compiled from a number of reliable sources, it was estimated by this Headquarters that there were five thousand party members in Hokkaido. There are very likely ten thousand or more at present. In January 1948, however, party membership in Hokkaido represented 8.1 percent of the estimated total of 61,550 party members throughout Japan. Hokkaido membership came second after Tokyo’s 8,500 (13.8 percent), and was followed by Osaka’s 4,500 members (7.4 percent of the total).
As of January 1948 the same careful estimates of the combined communist membership for the seven prefectures of Kyushu was 4,800 of which two thousand alone were concentrated in Fukuoka Prefecture. Kyushu communists represented 7.9 percent of the party’s total membership.
The significance of communist strength can best be measured in terms of the ratio of party membership to the total population. Assuming a population of 78 million, there was in January 1948 one communist party member for every 1,267 Japanese. In Hokkaido, with a population of 3,852,850, the ratio was 1 to 770; in Tokyo, with a population of 4,997,666, the ratio was 1 to 588; and in Osaka, with a population of 3,335,515, the ratio was 1 to 741. The combined population of the seven prefectures of Kyushu is approximately 11,399,000 and the communist ratio in this area as of January 1948 was only 1 to 2,362, which is a much smaller ratio than the national average.
The communist position in Hokkaido has combined a relatively high membership with intensified party activity which in the case of the recent job desertion tactics during the railway dispute led to a large number of arrests and numerous incidents of violence. The communist party in Hokkaido is exceedingly well organized under Mr. Hasegawa Hiroshi, veteran party member, as the regional organizer. For the most part Hokkaido communists are of the “hard core” type.
Shortly before the government railway workers commenced agitation in September against revision of the National Public Service Law, [Page 889] which was featured by widespread job desertions which threatened to disrupt railway traffic in Hokkaido, a number of top communist leaders, including Mr. Nosaka Sanzo, visited the northern island. The, close attention paid by party leaders to Hokkaido has been widely-interpreted as evidence that the communists have a special mission in this area.
Hokkaido is also an important center of party espionage activity and more information concerning the covert, subversive side of the party’s work has come from Hokkaido than from any other part of Japan. Recent reports indicate that the Hokkaido communists are waging an intensive psychological warfare campaign designed to stress how easily Soviet forces can seize this island in the event of war, and that the people had best align themselves with the communist cause before the Soviets take over.
Most well informed Japanese are fully cognizant of the comparatively strong position the communists occupy in Hokkaido, their exceptionally aggressive spirit, and the nature of their demoralizing propaganda. Accordingly, it is not surprising that continued Soviet-American tension and the spectacular communist gains on the continent have caused the Japanese to look to their northern island with increasing concern.
How much the problem of Hokkaido has come to occupy Japanese attention can be seen in the fact that the October, 1948 issue of three magazines devoted articles to communist activity in the island. Hokkai Keizai Shimpo contained two articles which described in detail the activities of communist agitators and fractions in connection with the government railway dispute and communist activity among the Hokkaido coal miners. The magazine Kaizo gave an account of the Hokkaido labor movement and attempted to explain its pronounced communist character. Finally, the very anti-communist monthly Sempu (this Mission’s despatches Nos. 450 and 554 of July 20, 1948 and August 25, 1948,2 respectively) in an article dealing with the railway dispute in Hokkaido charged that Japan is faced with a “revolution from the north.”
The situation in Kyushu differs considerably from that in Hokkaido, but there are nevertheless disturbing similarities. Communist party membership in the island is small, but this has been offset by the able leadership of Mr. Konno Yojiro, the party’s regional organizer. As a result, the party in Kyushu is exceedingly well organized on the basis of the so-called Konno system, which has enabled this small minority to carry on effective labor agitation in the vital coal mines and the steel industry of the island.
[Page 890]While there has been infiltration of Soviet agents into Hokkaido, primarily for espionage purposes, Kyushu appears to be the principal point of liaison with continental communists. In this connection, it is of special significance that one of Mr. Konno Yojiro’s principal duties as regional organizer in Kyushu is the coordination of Japanese communist and Korean activities. For these reasons, Kyushu, like Hokkaido, has come to occupy an important place in communist strategy, the full significance of which is becoming of more and more concern to most Japanese.
Hokkaido’s newly-acquired proximity to Soviet-held territory has brought to the Japanese people a far more convincing communist specter than any bogey the pre-war militarists were ever able to devise. Parts of the Kuril Islands and southern Sakhalin are clearly visible from Hokkaido, and frequent seizures of Japanese craft by Soviet patrol authorities during this year’s fishing season have served to remind the Japanese that the power of the Soviet Union now extends almost to the shores of the Japanese home islands (this Mission’s despatch No. 706 of November 2, 19483). The communist uprisings in South Korea, followed by the red victory in Manchuria, have also demonstrated to the Japanese that the home island of Kyushu is comparatively close to another center of communist power.
Respectfully yours,