745.45F/11–2048: Telegram
The Ambassador in India (Henderson)1 to the Secretary of State
niact
1027. Karachi telegrams 524, November 18 and 525, November 192 to Department (Embtels 1006, November 14 and 1014, November 18 to Department3).
Following is appreciation present situation Kashmir prepared by Military Attaché with which Embassy agrees and which checks with information furnished Embassy by CINC Indian army yesterday:
- (1).
- With capture of Dras, primarily a local operation to obtain more favorable position for Indian troops during the winter, it is believed Indians intend generally to stabilize their positions in that area. However, a possible advance toward Kargil should not be overlooked as this town controls communications on Indus river and route Kargil–Khalatse–Leh. Occupation of Kargil would relieve considerable hostile pressure on Leh and might be undertaken, providing hostile resistance weak and no great effort involved.
- (2).
- No offensive operations are expected in Tithwal–Uri sector during winter. Hostile strength, severe winter weather, exceedingly rugged terrain and difficult supply problems are factors which should cause Indian leaders to reject any consideration of an offensive in this area before spring.
- (3).
- In southwest Kashmir Indians hold Rajaori, Thannamandi, Jhangar, Naushera and Sadabad. The hostiles have been active in this area and have infiltrated Indian lines. To northwest hostiles have surrounded [Page 454] Indian garrison at Poonch and intermittently shelled airfields. In this area Indians are conducting local operations to clear out pockets of hostiles consolidate their positions and-relieve besieged Poonch.
- (4).
- No major offensive operations appear planned for winter months. Except as above believe that India intends for time being to maintain present positions and await action by UN. We have no information causing us believe that GOI is planning all-out offensive in Kashmir. CINC states operations against Dras have so far caused Indian army ten killed and, ten wounded and that operations against Mirpur and Mangla headworks not feasible account poor communications between Jammu and Naoshera and beyond whereas Pakistan has excellent parallel lines communication in its-own territory adjacent Kashmir border.
We are of opinion Pakistan is exaggerating importance local: operations Kashmir and that unless additional evidence can be adduced it would be unfortunate to press for cease-fire order on assumption India is planning a general offensive in immediate future. In view character terrain it would be impracticable effectively supervise cease-fire order during winter months.
Sent Department 1027; repeated Karachi 166. Department pass Paris, Geneva, London.