761.00/8–748: Telegram
The Ambassador in the Soviet Union (Smith) to the Secretary of State
1556. Embassy has long considered likelihood of Soviets turning to Far or Middle East if temporarily stopped in west Europe (JIC study, EmbTopSec despatch 315, April 1, 1948). While we are inclined agree with Bevin (London’s 3545, August 6 to Dept1) that at present Middle East more likely target than Far East, it seems to us even here that such action likely be covert rather than overt. Soviets position for any direct action has deteriorated due Yugoslav defection and failure Markos in Greece, while at same time Palestine has opened up opportunities for exploitation which will not be neglected.
Presumably tactics for both Iran and Palestine will be those already in use: Infiltration and subversion, plus in case of Iran, diplomatic and propaganda pressure. Overt action would be more difficult, risky and probably less profitable in long run than steady progress toward Communist objectives. Only indications of weakness on part Iran Govt would be likely tempt Soviets and thus change this picture in near future and that is, therefore, greatest danger from west point of view.
Overt action in Far East appears even less probable at present time. Chinese Communists ‘apparently have their own troubles (food, ammunition, [Page 910] administration, etc) and a tremendous task ahead. All indications point to Soviet desire encourage them continue build up and consolidate own strength, lead CP movements southeast Asia, and work toward substituting “coalition” govt for Chiang2 regime. Setting up independent Communist China regime would still be premature and this or other overt action Far East would involve unnecessary risks and win little benefits for Soviets. Our best guess is that Soviets hope for (1) collapse Chiang regime and (2) coalition govt which CCP can eventually dominate. Only if (2) becomes impossible and new anti-Communist regime comes into being will separatist move be considered.
Sent Dept 1556, Dept pass Tehran 23, Nanking 18, London 122.