863.00/11–2145: Telegram
The United States Political Adviser for Austrian Affairs (Erhardt) to the Secretary of State
[Received 5 p.m.]
469. Representatives three political parties are all extremely cautious in predicting outcome elections next Sunday.7 Everyone agrees, however, that the Socialists and Peoples Party will run neck and neck, with most persons predicting 2 to 4 percent margin for Socialists. Estimates of Communist vote run as high as 20 percent but most experienced observers forecast 10 to 15 percent. Whatever exact results, no party is expected obtain a plurality and Communists will hold balance of power.
It is generally agreed three parties have campaigned equally energetically but that Socialists have had most skillful propaganda and that Communists have been somewhat unscrupulous in electioneering tactics. Much of their propaganda in recent days incidentally has emphasized recent Red Army favors to Vienna and lower Austria population, which appears to be effort counteract predicted unfavorable effect Red Army behavior on Communist election prospects. Peoples Party in its championing of Heimwehr and small Nazis has probably lost more votes from Anti-Nazi center groups than it will obtain from Nazis, most but not all of whom will be effectively excluded from voting by disfranchisement legislation. No one expects extensive election swindles but possible influence of Red Army on voters in lower Austria is factor about which non-Communist circles have some misgivings.
Whatever the election results three-party coalition will continue in office following election. The Communists following their present line will undoubtedly continue advocate United Labor movement which Socialists will continue resist. A possible split in the Peoples Party, with a liberal minority breaking off to form fourth party following election if [is?] possibility which would introduce element of fluidity into the situation.
- November 25.↩