740.0011 E.W./8–2044
The British Embassy to the Department of State
Aide-Mémoire
His Majesty’s Government have been giving urgent consideration to the next step in their policy towards Turkey. His Majesty’s Government and the United States Government agree that the rupture of Turco-German relations was only a preliminary to Turkey’s actual entry into war. As a definition of policy this is however unsatisfactory unless there is some concrete proposal that can be put to the Turks. At the present time there seems to be no way of fitting Turkey into active Central European Military operations and in default of this the only way the Turks could get at the Germans is by action against Bulgaria. This however immediately raises the question of Turco-Soviet relations. Turkey cannot be expected and would probably refuse to declare war on Bulgaria unless the Russians did so too. Any action must therefore be taken jointly by both the Turkish and the Soviet Governments. His Majesty’s Government’s view is that both Governments should be asked to sign an ultimatum to the Bulgarian Government informing them that unless they expel the Germans from Bulgaria forthwith, sever relations with Germany and withdraw their troops from Allied territory they have occupied, Turkey and the Soviet Union will declare war on Bulgaria.
There are of course certain objections to this plan. In the first place it is far from certain that the Soviet Government would agree to take the action proposed. Their policy towards Bulgaria is obscure. However to make this approach to them may help to clarify their attitude. Secondly, if asked to declare war on Bulgaria the Turks would probably make large demands for equipment and military assistance which it would be necessary to confess that we could not provide. However, this is not so important now that the Turks have been induced to take the first step of breaking off relations with [Page 361] Germany. Thirdly, if it came to an actual clash between Turkey and Bulgaria there is no certainty that the result would be all in Turkey’s favour if the Russians were not in a position to give much assistance. His Majesty’s Government are, however, inclined to believe that a combined Turco-Russian ultimatum would probably be sufficient to bring Bulgaria out of the war without any fighting.
The British Chiefs of Staff have been consulted and have commented that if, as may be hoped, a combined Turco-Russian ultimatum to Bulgaria resulted in bringing the latter out of the war it would be militarily most valuable. If it came to a clash, the measure of assistance which Turkey would require would not be greater than that which the Combined Chiefs of Staff have already authorised in the event of Turkey becoming involved in hostilities and the Chiefs of Staff would not be prepared to recommend any further assistance even if asked by the Turks.
His Majesty’s Government consider this scheme as complementary to, and not as conflicting with, the plan described in the British Embassy’s memorandum of to-day’s date11 regarding the approach made to Sir H. Knatchbull Hugessen by M. Stoicho Moshanoff. It may in any case be possible to execute the latter plan before the plan described in the preceding paragraphs.
In communicating the above views of His Majesty’s Government His Majesty’s Ambassador is instructed to express the hope that the United States Government will be able to give their very early concurrence.12 When this has been obtained the two Governments can arrange together the best method of approaching the Turkish and Soviet Governments.