874.00/7–2144
The Consul General at Istanbul (Berry) to the Secretary of State
[Received August 1—10:09 a.m.]
Sir: I have the honor to present below some views on the present situation of Bulgaria, especially with regard to Russia and the Western Democracies, expressed by a person close to the Bulgarian Government who has been the source for some of my recent secret telegrams. Two questions seem to be the primary concern of the Bulgarian Government nowadays, that of internal order and unity and that of relations with Russia. This despatch deals primarily with the latter and its bearing on Bulgaria’s relations with the Western Democracies.
Internal Affairs:
Contrary to notices in the newspapers the Bulgarian Parliament did not meet in emergency session on July 15th. However, it probably will meet soon. At that time, Bagryanov, who has not yet met Parliament, must ask for a vote of confidence—perhaps on the question of his economic decrees.
The source thinks the Jewish question is too touchy for the Government to place before Parliament now. Therefore, no immediate change in Jewish laws is now likely for the Council of Ministers has not the power to change laws by decree. Changes must be made by Parliament. The Government’s power of decree is used only to initiate new laws.
No member of the Bagryanov Government is anti-Jewish in background. The nearest to this is Staliisky who has been a strong advocate of Fascism, but of the Italian rather than the German brand.
Relations with Russia:
Perhaps the most interesting and at the same time the most delicate information from our source is that there is a current belief among Bulgarians of high rank that a clear divergence of views on Balkan affairs exists today between Moscow on the one hand and London and Washington on the other. Russia resents any effort of the Anglo-Americans to gain favor in the Balkans and especially among the Slavic Balkan peoples. Russia does not recognize spheres of influence in the Balkans.
Bulgaria, seeing this divergence, hopes to reach a bargain between the two divisions. Bulgaria wants to walk arm in arm both with the West and with the East, much as Czechoslovakia is doing in Central Europe. The Bulgarian connections with Russia are so strong that the Anglo-Americans probably won’t do anything to offend Russia. Inevitably, therefore, Bulgaria will go a certain distance with Russia, [Page 352] but how far depends on Anglo-American diplomacy. The present Allied policy of saying nothing tends to push Bulgaria towards Russia. This policy of the great western Allies may be compared with their efforts to win favor in Yugoslavia, a policy which Russia does not approve.
In the informant’s opinion, Russia is not going to see her hegemony in the Balkans disturbed after this war. Russia has directed her policy towards this hegemony for 200 years, especially in the Nineteenth Century when she was thwarted by such events as the Treaty of Berlin.91 Russia will want a Bulgarian Government favorable to Moscow and unable to make major decisions, especially in foreign policy, without consent from Moscow. In other words, Russia will want to put a collar on Bulgaria; and, if the Anglo-Americans press too hard for favor in the Balkans, Russia might even annex Bulgaria.
The amount of territory allowed Bulgaria after the War, the informant thinks, will depend on the divergence of attitude between London and Moscow. If this divergence is great, Russia will demand a strong Bulgaria with some of Macedonia and some outlet on the Aegean. This, in a way, will be a repetition of San Stefano,92 but this time other powers will not be able to force a revision as was done in the Treaty of Berlin. Anglo-American and Russian agreement on Balkan questions may have been reached in part at Tehran,93 but as the situation develops it will take on form regardless of preliminary agreements.
Thus, here is one more confirmation that the key to the situation in Bulgaria is Russia, as has often been pointed out by this office, and that no settlement is possible there without her. This fundamental conception is becoming much more important now that restoration of order in the Balkans is approaching the point of realization. Recent statements by persons who claim to be informed, that the Bulgarian Parliament was about to meet to break relations with Russia, are ridiculous. No Bulgarian would take this step today at a time when the Red Army is enjoying its greatest successes on the Eastern Front, unless he were drunk or insane. Therefore, the informant is convinced now more than ever that his interpretation of the present Bulgarian Government (reference recent telegrams on this subject) is the correct one.
Respectfully yours,
- Signed July 13, 1878; British and Foreign State Papers, vol. lxix, p. 749.↩
- Treaty of peace signed on March 3, 1878, between Russia and Turkey; for text, see Foreign Relations, 1878, p. 866, or British and Foreign State Papers, vol. lxix, p. 732.↩
- President Roosevelt, Prime Minister Churchill, and Marshal Stalin met at Tehran from November 27 to December 1, 1943; for documentation concerning this meeting, see Foreign Relations, The Conferences at Cairo and Tehran, 1943.↩