740.0011 Pacific War/2639: Telegram
The Ambassador in the United Kingdom ( Winant ) to the Secretary of State
[Received 11:25 p.m.]
3972. In discussing the Far Eastern situation with Ashley Clarke17 he told us of a telegram received recently from the British Ambassador [Page 602] at Chungking. The latter reported that the flock of current “peace rumors” now circulating in China, which he said is customary in periods of Japanese military success, should not be taken seriously. He said that there were no indications of any early Chinese collapse or of any further deterioration of Chinese morale; on the contrary the improvement in the food situation as this summer’s abundant crops came on the market has been helpful.
Ashley Clarke expressed the view that other than the obvious attempt to prevent possible Allied use of bases in China for operations against Japan and the important occupation of the entire Hankow-Canton railway there were no clear indications of intended future Japanese moves. Both for military reasons and internal Japanese political reasons, a termination of the “China incident” is most important but there are no signs that any such development is likely in the visible future or exactly what plans Japan may have to bring it about. There are likewise no signs, he said, of important defections on the Chinese side though the loyalty of a number of Chiang Kai-shek’s supporters—he mentioned the Governor of Hunan specifically—may bear watching.
In spite of some increase in Japanese forces in Manchukuo there are no important signs, he said, that any move against Siberia is imminent. Like most British officials he is inclined to think that the Japanese will carefully observe German progress in her Russian campaign before grasping any longed for opportunity to remove the threat of Vladivostok from her back door.
We inquired whether any progress had been made in eliciting Russian cooperation in the matter of supplies and supply routes to China. He replied that the question was one on which the Foreign Office is doing all that it can but so far without success. In the light of other recent developments, he said, the Foreign Office is not in a strong position to insist with the Russians without exposing itself to embarrassing rejoinders. There is no doubt, he went on, that from the long-term point of view Russia realizes its vital interest in the maintenance of Chinese resistance to Japan. From the short-term point of view, however, the lack of greater Russian cooperation, he said, is probably due to several factors. First and most important of these is Moscow’s desire to avoid any move which may irritate Japan or tend to tip the scales of Japanese policy toward an attack on Russia’s Far Eastern rear. A second factor presumably is that the urgent and immediate attention of all those in authority is concentrated on the growing German threat to Russia’s armies and the existence of the régime. A third reason, he said, is a probable Russian desire to keep every available inch of transport space for supplies she so badly needs herself; and the same holds true with respect [Page 603] to Russian assistance in fuel or motor transport diverted to China. Besides, he concluded, the Russians being “very practical people” probably feel that the small amount of arms and war material which could be made available to the Chinese under the circumstances and over the proposed routes would weigh little in the balance of Chinese resistance or collapse—an argument which of course takes no account of stiffening of morale which might result from even a trickle. Ashley Clarke indicated that the Foreign Office is, however, quite conscious of the importance of China to the United Nations victory prospects and will lose no opportunity to help bolster the Generalissimo.
In this connection, he said, in spite of Tibetan pride in their country’s autonomy and their rather anti-Chinese sentiments, arrangements are now being concluded for a pack-mule route from India to China over the Tibetan mountains which should provide small quantities of gasoline, medical supplies and other badly needed materials; it is hoped to get the first mule-train started soon. (The Tibetans have declined to permit the passage over their territory of ammunition, machine guns or other arms.)
- Head of the Far Eastern Department, British Foreign Office.↩