740.0011 Pacific War/2959
Document Prepared in the Department of State47
Reports from sources in the Far East and through U.S. channels bearing on the question of Japanese intentions in regard to a new offensive against China from Burma and/or Indochina.
[Here follows a descriptive enumeration of reports from October 10 to November 27 inclusive, emanating from military, diplomatic and [Page 181] press sources, indicating possible Japanese intentions of mounting a new offensive against China from contiguous Southeast Asia territories.]
Comment: It is believed that present situation factors, including military and naval setup, climatic conditions, etc. in the Indochinar–Thailand–Burma–Yunnan area are comparatively favorable for the launching of a Japanese offensive against Yunnan. Recent estimates of Japanese intentions have run to the effect that the Japanese are not likely to move in the near future against the Soviet Union or against India; it would appear that current operations in the Solomons need not make a drain upon Japanese land forces available for operations from Burma and/or Indochina into Yunnan; Japanese air forces in Indochina, Thailand and Burma would appear to be sufficient for the covering of such an operation; there therefore would appear to be no substantial reason why the Japanese should not make such a move at this time. In the light of their reverses elsewhere and of their knowledge that American, British and Chinese strengths are increasing in the China–India area, there would appear to be logical warrant for the launching by the Japanese at this time of an offensive intended further to isolate China (by cutting lines of communication) and, if successful, to eliminate the major bases (Kunming—and even Chungking) from which Chinese operations are directed and on which the operations of the U. S. air forces in China are based.
- Apparently by the Adviser on Political Relations (Hornbeck); see Mr. Hornbeck’s memorandum of November 28 to the Secretary of State, infra.↩