390.1115A/502: Telegram

The Consul General at Singapore (Patton) to the Secretary of State

176. Reference last sentence paragraph 1 of the Department’s 15, March 20, 6 p.m. My considered judgment is that the situation has not sufficiently deteriorated in consequence of apparent imminence of unopposed Japanese occupation of strategical zones in Indochina to render necessary at the [this?] time [the] issuance of warning to Americans to leave Malaya. While such a Japanese move admittedly constitutes threat to defenses of the British and Dutch possessions, consensus of informed opinion is that actual attack is not imminent as Japan will require several months to create and develop offensive bases from which to operate.

The foregoing interpretation does not take into consideration either the possibility of armed resistance by French colony which is considered extremely remote or the possible imposition against Japan by the United States and Great Britain either jointly or separately of economic and other measures so drastic as to be deemed by Japan sufficient cause to abandon the more cautious policy of complete preparation in favor of precipitate action.

American naval and military observers here concur with above.

Patton