740.0011 Pacific War/1465
The British Embassy to the Department of State 28
The following indications of the possibility of a Japanese attack upon Thailand may be of interest to the State Department.
Sir Robert Craigie reports from Tokyo that several factors point to the early months of next year as the most likely period for any Japanese action against Thailand, provided that the crisis is not precipitated earlier for other reasons.
Sir J. Crosby, in Bangkok, states that the rains cease in Thailand about the middle of November and begin again in May, so that the dry weather thus prevails from December to April inclusive. He adds that in the flat country, which comprises Cambodia and Central Thailand, the soil of the rice fields becomes baked hard during the dry season. He has been told that the improvisation of air fields for temporary use is then not difficult and suggests that, if the Japanese contemplate an attack on Thailand, the most favourable time for it may well be at the beginning of next year.
The Commander-in-Chief, Far East, reports that the present Japanese strength in Cambodia and Cochin-China is about 30,000, including one and possibly two tank regiments. There has been a considerable importation of anti-aircraft artillery, motor transport and transportation material, including small craft capable of use for water transport up to the new frontier at the northern end of Tonla Saidle Lake. A number of aerodromes in the North are known to be equipped with concrete or asphalted runways and can operate at any season. In the South there is an asphalted runway at Tan Son Nhut, and metal runways at Angkor, Pnon Penh and Tourane. Runways being constructed at other aerodromes in the South will cater for the operation of heavy bombers and work is proceeding rapidly.
- Handed on November 14 to the Adviser on Political Relations (Hornbeck), by the First Secretary of the British Embassy (Dening); noted by the Secretary of State.↩