740.0011 P. W./258: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Gauss) to the Secretary of State
[Received 10 p.m.]
295. There appears to be a growing opinion among Chinese officials that the Japanese are likely soon to occupy Indochina while awaiting development of the Russo-German war for a favorable opportunity to advance in Siberia, The Chiefs of the Foreign Office and Military Intelligence Department also share this opinion. The former foresees a coordinated move with the occupation of Indochina preceding [Page 210] an advance into Siberia but with further southward advance awaiting a settlement of Siberia; he is not impressed by reports of Japanese indecision which he thinks may be a smokescreen for sudden moves on the diplomatic and military fronts. The latter in support of his opinion cites:
- 1.
- Movement of a brigade of Japanese troops experienced in Indochina from Shanghai area toward south.
- 2.
- Mobilization of men in Kyushu suited to operation under southern climatic conditions and
- 3.
- Extension of Government control over Japanese shipping. He anticipates occupation of Hanoi, Camranh Bay, Saigon and area ceded by Indochina to Thailand for the establishment of sea and air bases. Both informants seemed to discount current rumors of Japanese coolness towards the Axis.
Sent to the Department. Repeated to Peiping.