740.0011 Pacific War/219
The British Minister (Butler) to the Adviser on Political Relations (Hornbeck)
Dear Dr. Hornbeck: We have recently had two delayed telegrams from Tokyo, dated April 29th—possibly you will already have had [Page 152] the substance of them. Craigie reports receiving information to the effect that efforts which had been under consideration for forming an anti-Axis and pro-American group have now been postponed, the reason given being that Matsuoka’s visit to the Axis capitals, combined with the conclusion of the Neutrality Pact with the Soviet Union and the deterioration of the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean, has so strengthened the hands of the extremists in Japan that for the present no such move has any chance of success. Matsuoka’s stock is so high that there is now a fairly strong movement (which would grow if Britain could not achieve an early success in North Africa) in favour of substituting him for Prince Konoye as Prime Minister.
Craigie’s informant, who has close contacts in the business world and also with certain army officers, and whom he regards as reliable, seemed more concerned about the situation than on any previous occasion.
Information from other sources in Tokyo indicated that, apart from the attitude of the United States, the most important single factor in determining the moment for a Japanese plan to advance Southward would be the fate of Egypt and the Suez Canal. Craigie believes the Japanese Navy to be opposed to embarking on any large scale adventure until they can be sure that the Suez Canal is either in Axis hands or at least temporarily closed to use by the British Navy.
Craigie realises that the above is all fairly obvious; it serves however to emphasise the fact that failure to throw back the Axis attack on Egypt may well have repercussions far beyond the Mediterranean area.
Yours sincerely,