740.0011 European War 1939/16454: Telegram
The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 7—10:08 a.m.]
1760. Embassy’s 1759, November 6, 8 p.m.,49 second paragraph.
1. In regard to the general question of a Japanese attack on Siberia, while obviously the real intentions of the Tojo Government in this respect are not known, it can be said that there have been no indications since the formation of the new Government which would tend to support the views that action against the Soviet Union is contemplated in the immediate future. Indeed, surface indications which are naturally not conclusive suggest rather an intention to seek the maintenance of normal relations with the Soviet Government or possibly to exploit through diplomatic means Russia’s precarious position for the purpose of obtaining the fulfillment of certain Japanese desires, particularly in respect to the Soviet attitude toward Chiang Kai-shek. As previously reported, the appointment of both a Minister and Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs50 who have had personal experience in constructive diplomatic negotiations with the Soviet Government is of significance in regard to Japan’s immediate intentions towards the Soviet Union.
2. Furthermore, since the formation of the Tojo Government, the Japanese press in general has adopted a more objective and moderate attitude towards the Soviet-German war. In its leading editorial of October 31, the Nichi Nichi spoke of certain unclarified aspects of the relations between Japan and the Soviet Union, and specifically mentioned that despite the neutrality pact, the Soviet Union attitude toward Chiang Kai-shek constitutes an obstacle to the development of genuinely friendly relations and concluded by urging the new Foreign Minister, Mr. Togo, to seize the opportunity to place relations between the two countries on a more stable basis. The Japan Times and Advertiser, which is regarded as expressing the views of the Foreign Office, has, in the past 2 weeks, commented editorially on the Soviet-German war and has, in general, developed the view that no collapse of the Soviet Union is to be anticipated even if Leningrad, Moscow and the whole of European Russia should be occupied by Germany, since the Soviet Union possesses sufficient resources in men and material and industrial capacity to continue with British and American help to wage effective warfare from behind the Urals.
According to the best available information, there are from 500,000 to 800,000 Japanese troops in Manchuria, a quantity sufficient to exploit any collapse of the Soviet structure, extending into Siberia, [Page 1025] but not, in the opinion of military observers, sufficient to undertake an invasion of Siberia in the face of an intact Soviet Far Eastern army and air force. While obviously any clear sign of an impending Soviet collapse would alter the situation immediately, it would appear that for the immediate future at least the Japanese will continue their past policy of watchful waiting in regard to the Soviet Union.
3. It is too soon to evaluate the possible effects on the relations between Japan and the Soviet Union of the accidental sinking announced yesterday of the Kehi Maru which the Japanese claim was sunk following collision with a Soviet floating mine. While there is no indication so far of an intention on the part of the Japanese press to play up this disaster and a protest has merely been delivered to the Soviet Ambassador in Tokyo, the accident occurs against a background of previous Japanese complaints in regard to the danger of loose Soviet mines in the sea of Japan.