740.0011 European War 1939/13517: Telegram
The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State
[Received July 29—6:18 p.m.]
1122. Since the beginning of the Soviet-German war, we have received only plain language telegrams from Moscow and consequently have no information in regard to the development of the military and political situation as it affects the question of Soviet resistance. As the Department will have observed from the reports from our consuls at Dairen, Mukden, and Harbin, there is accumulating evidence of unusual military activity in Manchuria and according to some of these reports movements of troops in the direction of the Soviet border. While there is yet no accurate information on which to base an estimate of the present number of Japanese troops in Manchuria or of the extent to which they have increased recently, it is beginning to be apparent that a considerable portion at least of the reservists called up are being sent to that area. Furthermore there are a number of unconfirmed rumors in foreign circles in Tokyo to which some of my colleagues attach importance that the Japanese Government is making preparation for a possible attack on Russia sometime after the middle of August, and in this connection the Department’s attention might be drawn to the evasive reply of the Japanese Foreign Minister to an inquiry from my British colleague (see my 1109, July 28, 9 p.m.44) in regard to the intention of the Japanese Government to observe the Neutrality Pact with Russia. While these various reports and rumors are yet without sufficient foundation to base thereon any reliable opinion, it would be most helpful to me if the Department would repeat here any indications which it may have from Moscow or elsewhere concerning the prospects of the success or failure of the German offensive in the immediate future since it must be assumed that this factor will in large measure determine the attitude of Japan.