Office of the Historian

894.00/1091

Memorandum by the Chief of the Division of Far Eastern Affairs (Hamilton) to the Under Secretary of State (Welles)

[Washington,] June 24, 1941.

Mr. Welles: Herewith two memoranda prepared by officers of FE commenting upon probable Japanese reactions to the outbreak of war between Germany and Russia. The first memorandum, prepared by Mr. Schmidt,1 and concurred in by the senior officers of FE, represents what I believe to be the most probable Japanese reactions. The second memorandum, prepared by Mr. Langdon,1a a senior Japanese language officer who has just returned to the United States from some five years service at Mukden followed by a short assignment at the Tokyo [Page 985] Embassy, sets forth factors which may operate to discourage embarkation by Japan upon a military attack upon Siberia. While I believe that the factors listed by Mr. Langdon warrant consideration, they represent in my opinion factors bearing only upon one side of the question.

The two memoranda contain tentative and preliminary expressions of view which, although they may be changed in the light of further analysis and further developments, I believe you will find of interest. The viewpoints expressed in both memoranda point to the probability that there is likely to ensue in Japan a period of uncertainty and of extreme difficulty in deciding upon a future course.2

M[axwell] M. H[amilton]

Copies to Mr. Hornbeck and Mr. Atherton.3

  1. Dated June 24, supra.↩
  2. Dated June 23, p. 981.↩
  3. Notation by Mr. Welles: “Very interesting — S. W.”↩
  4. Ray Atherton, Acting Chief of the Division of European Affairs.↩