793.94/16861: Telegram
The Counselor of Embassy in China (Butrick) to the Secretary of State
[Received September 23—9 a.m.]
271. (Begin summary).45 The possibility exists that through failure to evaluate Japanese duplicity the opportunity to obtain a quick and permanent conclusion of Japanese aggression may be lost. Japanese propaganda has [apparent omission] timid reluctance in the Far East [Page 462] with skill. However, there undoubtedly exists in Japan considerable race pride which might take a desperate course regardless of consequences. This supplies the element of reality without which all Japanese blustering would have but little force.
The Japanese have failed to conquer China by force and they know it. They have failed to conquer through puppets and they know it. They hoped to succeed through the Axis alliance but that is now very dubious. They are very worried and see but one hope, a compromise in the Far East which will enable them to wait, with their military and naval forces still strong, an opportune time to strike southward or into Siberia.
The Japanese have asserted that they would never negotiate with Chiang or any third country. They have now abandoned both stands and conversations are going on in Washington on the basis of the Nine Power Treaty and other principles to which the United States is committed. Seemingly complying with American desires, the Japanese will doubtless haggle over what they will describe as minor details or sacrifices which they should not be asked to make. They will urge concessions with great plausibility and persistence. The Japanese hope to be left with wedges which they will drive home after peace has been declared.
To put it briefly, the danger in the present Washington conversations and in further diplomatic measures is not that they may lead to war, but rather that they will lead to a highly deceptive illusion of peace. (End summary)
Sent to the Department, repeated to Chungking and Shanghai.
- For explanation, see telegram No. 272, infra.↩