740.0011 European War 1939/14172
Memorandum of Conversation, by the First Secretary of Embassy in China (Vincent)91
Mr. Gauss called by appointment on Dr. Quo92 at 9 a.m. to make inquiry regarding the reported intention of China to establish a tobacco monopoly. Following discussion of that matter the conversation turned to the international situation. Dr. Quo made certain interesting observations which are summarized below:
Dr. Quo, in common with most the Chinese officials in Chungking, expected that Japan would launch an attack upon Siberia. He [Page 311] thought that the recent Imperial Conference has reached a decision to that effect. He understood that, when Matsuoka was in Berlin in April, he had been informed that Germany did not want Japan to attack in Siberia in the event of a German-Russian war; rather, Germany desired that Japan carry out its southward advance. However, he felt that matters were not going as well as expected for Germany in Russia and that Germany now desired a Japanese attack in Siberia. He interpreted German recognition of the Nanking regime as an inducement to Japan to move into Siberia. He said that the recent appointment of a new Governor General in Korea was one indication suggesting probable Japanese action against Russia in Siberia.
Dr. Quo remarked that the Japanese Government seemed to be in a dilemma; that it was in the position of wanting more and of having promised more than it could with any assurance of success obtain; that it was in the unwelcome situation of having its hand forced, by the march of events and its own pretensions, to action rather than, as had been hopefully expected, of being able to move of its own volition as a free agent choosing its own time and place to act. He observed that not only had Japan set up puppet governments in China since 1931 but that it had also had puppet governments in Japan since that date. He believed however that governments as a facade for actual control and direction of affairs by the military services was causing some embarrassment and confusion; that the system of dispersed and undisclosed responsibility was not working smoothly in the present urgent situation.